The financial might of the British & Irish Lions brand is a lucrative source of income for the home unions but, for that revenue stream to continue to cascade, it must be matched by performances on the pitch.
In Australia it’s been a bit “meh” to date, subdued and largely without jeopardy for the tourists. Now, like the eye of Sauron, the gaze is trained exclusively on the Test series. Everything else – tour matches to date, the training clips, the selection debates – fades into the background. The three Tests will define how the tour is remembered.
Neither the Lions nor Australia – in their narrow win over Fiji – have shown their best. The Wallabies are undercooked while Andy Farrell’s squad faced their toughest examination a while back against Argentina in Dublin, a game they lost. Since then they have rotated players and combinations, hoping to hear a click as they lock in on the Test team.
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Recent additions to the squad coupled with just one midweek match remaining suggest that Farrell doesn’t want to risk certain players outside Test duties.
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“Selection headaches” is coach-speak for a surfeit of choice, but Farrell doesn’t appear to be overly burdened, bar a couple of key areas. Chief among them is the blindside flanker position, where two secondrows, Tadhg Beirne and Ollie Chessum, have emerged as the front-runners.
There’ll be debates too over the bench, but choosing between Jac Morgan and Josh van der Flier is a good problem to have; it doesn’t weaken the team in any way. And it could be the bench that makes the difference in the opening Test. Henry Pollock offers real spark, while Owen Farrell provides the steady head every team needs when the game tightens.
We know very little about either team’s true form heading into this series. Depending on your personality type, that will either fill you with dread or anticipation. I lean towards the latter. There’s limited attacking footage available for defence coaches to dissect and weaponise, which means players will be confronted with new pictures and have to make decisions in real time.
Australia may have a slight edge having watched the Lions develop their patterns over recent weeks, whereas Farrell and co won’t have learned much from the Wallabies’ win over Fiji. Still, both coaching teams are likely holding something back, whether it’s attacking a perceived area of weakness, a strike move or a multiphase attacking sequence.
Joe Schmidt will have a crystal-clear plan in how he wants Australia to attack the Lions, and I don’t expect it to veer far from what’s worked well for them since he took charge. He’s added a layer of pragmatism to their natural attacking instincts. Their fundamentals have improved, particularly at the ruck, in the kicking strategy, aerial contests and set-piece execution.
The England game last November is the benchmark. Australia kicked exceptionally well, played in the right areas of the pitch and showed patience in attack, waiting for England to blink. When the mistake came, they pounced. That was also the night Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii arrived on the scene.
If you just looked at the stats, you’d think he had a quiet game. But his impact was seismic. Schmidt will back his players in those one-on-one moments – Suaalii, Rob Valetini and Tom Wright – and if the Lions’ defence is less than vigilant or disconnected, they could create something special.
Let’s be honest, there will be defensive lapses. Argentina split the pitch in Dublin a few times to test the Lions’ defensive decisions. Defenders like certainty and system. They want to work hard, get into position early, scan the field and react.
If you’re scanning while still moving, unsure of the picture in front of you, then gaps will appear; good players will find them. We saw that in the opening match in Australia when Tommy Freeman was caught playing a different system that left him isolated from his centre Sione Tuipulotu.
The mismatch came from forwards not folding around the corner quickly enough. That’s the kind of moment Schmidt will be trying to engineer, through precision and pressure. For Australia’s attack to click, they need front-foot ball.
Kicking to regain possession or win territory requires a solid platform. Valetini, Angus Bell and Len Ikitau are expected to win the gain-line, with Nick Frost, Langi Gleeson and Will Skelton to clear out the breakdowns.
[ Andy Farrell ponders key Lions decisions as the first Test nearsOpens in new window ]
Noah Lolesio’s injury leaves a void. Can his replacement, likely to be Tom Lynagh, execute the game plan to the same level? That’s a pivotal variable. Lynagh is a rookie, albeit a talented one. Can he manage a Test match the way Lolesio did at Twickenham?
On the Lions side, much of the focus is on the halfbacks. Jamison Gibson-Park and Finn Russell have been asked to run a relatively simple, yet very effective, system. There are tempo changes, between the arrow formation and a flatter three-man line off nine, that align perfectly with Gibson-Park’s passing range.
What makes it difficult to defend is the unpredictability: all three runners in the line have to be live options. That forces defenders to make decisions in the moment, often without certainty. Russell has already shown why he’ll be wearing the 10 jersey, pulling out the full box of tricks. What will be as important across the series is his temperament. Australia will target him relentlessly, try to steal his time and space, disrupt the connection between the halfbacks and the rest of the team.
One of Schmidt’s greatest strengths is his ability to make complex things feel achievable. He breaks the game down into moments. Can you win this moment? Then win the next one. It’s a refreshing and empowering way to approach Test rugby. I always found his mantra of “control the controllables” the perfect mental anchor.
And that’s what this Test series will come down to: who wins the most moments?
