Ireland have changed. Their much promised attacking evolution – as opposed to revolution – has brought three Six Nations victories and a Triple Crown. If it ain’t broke...
France, though, for all their individual brilliance, have struggled against Ireland in recent years. Statistically speaking the reasons why appear to point to the game plan from which Ireland have now moved away. Is it time to revert to type?
This column has previously explained how Ireland shifted from relentlessly building phases to a more efficient attack. For the most part gone are the “empty” carries in the middle of the pitch. In this year’s Six Nations Ireland have kicked more, still adding to the scoreboard while possession share and total carries decline.
Analysing France the key statistical takeaway is obvious: keep them out of the 22. According to Opta, 58 per cent of French 22 entries have led to a try in this year’s Six Nations. Next best is England on 38 per cent. This figure includes a defeat to the English where French errors close to the line cost them a multitude of points.
Ireland v France head-to-head: Wing wizards all capable of casting spells on the pitch
Multipurpose Jamie Osborne has become central to Irish thinking
Should Ireland go back to their old game plan against the French?
Sacré bleu! The rugby fans are coming – where to eat like a French person in Dublin this weekend
In their last two meetings, 2023 and 2024, Ireland have by and large kept France out of their 22. How they did so is at least partly linked to the attacking strategy of old. The positive trends of previous French encounters may well be worth remembering.
Defensively Ireland can benefit from holding on to possession. While they limited Wales to 18 points that recent victory in Cardiff was the biggest test yet of this new attitude of being comfortable without the ball. Wales made 145 carries that day, the most against Ireland since they defeated Scotland at the 2023 World Cup (175).
Welsh carriers beat 33 Irish defenders, the highest number in their Six Nations history. The Welsh back three threats are promising, but they are no comparison to France. Do we believe that Louis Bielle-Biarrey et al won’t do similar, if not more damage, if offered that many opportunities?
Attack has been a strong form of defence for Ireland. In the last two meetings between these sides – both Irish victories – Ireland out-carried France by a margin of 291 to 229. France had 12 combined 22 entries across those two defeats. Part of the reason they couldn’t get into the Irish 22 is because they were stuck defending down near their own goal line, Ireland making 22 red zone entries across the pair of wins.
It’s worth highlighting also the apparent toll late in games that Ireland’s dominance of possession can take. While France playing with 14 men for the majority of the 2024 contest might skew this figure, Ireland have outscored their French counterparts 21-3 in the final quarter of their two most recent victories. Throwing volume at the French defence has paid off at the death.
In 2022, the last time Ireland lost to France, the carry totals were more even (112 vs 101 in favour of Ireland). France also had seven 22 entries that day to Ireland’s five. Holding on to the ball in the right parts of the field appears as good a strategy as any for keeping France away from the danger zones.
The counter to the above would be to look at the kicking stats from Ireland’s recent French victories. For all the talk of dominating the ball, Ireland kicked more often than France when beating them both in 2024 and 2023, making more ground via the boot as well. The last time France outkicked Ireland they beat them back in 2022.
The above qualifier of “the right zone” is crucial. Forty-two per cent of Ireland’s possession came inside their own half against Wales, compared to 35 per cent against England and 26 per cent against Scotland. It’s not unrelated that Cardiff brought Ireland’s worst display of the three.
Given Ireland kicked for more metres than their opponents in all three wins so far this year, not to mention the last two French victories, looking for length appears to be a benefit. This is not an exact science, though, particularly against France. Kicks landing infield or in touch, as well as the quality of the chase, are all important. Given the quality of their backfield distance is not always your friend against the French.
England kicked long and in play during the first half of their recent victory at Twickenham. France regularly threatened on the counterattack. Thomas Ramos and Bielle-Biarrey both rank in the top five for metres gained with the ball in this Six Nations, a sign of the danger of kicking long.
Where France are strong in fielding long kicks, they suffer in terms of short ones. Or rather contestables. None of their back three options of Ramos, Bielle-Biarrey, Damian Penaud and Théo Attisogbé are aerially dominant. In the second half at Twickenham England kicked short to challenge for possession instead of going long.
Tommy Freeman’s try came from directly outjumping Bielle-Biarrey. Other second-half scores resulted from challenging the French back three to win field position.
Every team France has played so far in this competition has kicked short more often than long. Yet no side had as many quality contestables as the English. The Irish halfbacks should take note.
Ireland have had recent success by combining a high attacking workload with kicking more often and with more quality than France. The evidence of recent performances suggests that balance may shift further in favour of the boot, thus decreasing Ireland’s possession and increasing France’s. The ultimate question is will any change of balance benefit France?
Should increased kicking be combined with a strong chase which contains the French back three, akin to England’s second-half display, Ireland should be okay. For all Simon Easterby’s confidence in his defence, offering attack after attack to this French side could be a fool’s errand.
Ireland embarked on this attacking shift because teams started catching on to plans of old. France, though, were not one of them. Statistics suggest that the old ways worked and France might have the ammunition to better counteract the new set of tactics. Whether they do in reality is another question entirely.
