The Champions Cup returns next weekend with nothing like the fanfare or sense of anticipation at this juncture under the old order. Halfway through what is now a pool sprint, the next two weekends will nonetheless not only finalise the Round of 16 line-up but will most likely define the knock-out stages through to the final once more.
Consider this. In the last two seasons there have been 28 knock-out ties (excluding the two finals) and only twice has an away side progressed; La Rochelle beating the Stormers 22-21 in the Round of 16 last season, and Harlequins surprising Bordeaux-Begles by 42-41 in the quarter-finals. Even then both home sides had late kicks to win.
Furthermore, the top two seeded sides have reached the last two finals. The three teams who have contested the last two finals – namely Toulouse, Leinster and La Rochelle – along with a star-studded Bordeaux-Begles side, all have two wins apiece and remain atop the betting to win the competition.
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Bordeaux-Begles have stormed to the top of the Top 14 after their eighth successive win in all competitions last weekend away to Stade Francais, ending 46-19, with Joey Carbery enjoying a run of games at outhalf and rediscovering his old strut.
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Toulouse dropped to second after a 22-19 loss away to La Rochelle, albeit with virtually a third-string side as Ugo Mola rested his frontliners, and even then were only denied by a soft, late penalty.
However, the draw had conspired to virtually ensure that no more than two of this “Big Four” can again earn a top-four seeding as one of the four pool winners and with that a home route all the way through to the semi-finals. This is because Toulouse and Bordeaux-Begles are together in Pool One, while La Rochelle and Leinster are in Pool Two and meet again in the Stade Deflandre next Sunday.
It was Leinster’s 16-9 win on a rain-drenched Sunday at La Rochelle in last season’s first round which ultimately condemned Ronan O’Gara’s team to that Round of 16 trek to Cape Town and then, via Cork, to Dublin for their quarter-final loss to Leinster.
Next Sunday’s reprise of the 2022 and 2023 finals looks like deciding Pool 2, as well as other ramifications. Leinster host Bath at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday week, while La Rochelle go to Treviso.
There’s little doubt that the inclusion of the South African franchises has been far from an unqualified success to date. Trips to the Southern Hemisphere are an unwanted logistical problem for the European sides and vice versa, especially in the knock-out stages.
The South African sides have often prioritised the URC and this season have lost five of six matches, conceding 190 points in those five games. It’s hard not to think that their franchises, their players and the Champions Cup might be better served if they didn’t participate.
However, that view could be significantly altered in the next two weeks. Word on the grapevine is that the Sharks are going to roll out their World Cup-winning Springboks for their marquee fixture in Durban next Saturday against Toulouse, for whom Antoine Dupont is set to make his first appearance in South Africa since 2017.
That could inject the competition with a whole new lease of life. Furthermore, if the Sharks give Toulouse a bloody nose in King Park, talk is that John Plumtree will bring all his frontliners to Bordeaux for their Pool One finale on Sunday week.
All of which could also open the door for the winners of the other two pools. Realistically, after that second round defeat in Castres, if Munster are to progress and avoid a Round of 16 away tie for the third year running they simply have to beat Saracens at Thomond Park next Saturday evening and, what’s more, back that up away to Northampton a week later.
Were Tadhg Beirne and Co to somehow achieve that double they could yet top Pool 3 as well, but that is a prize which Northampton – semi-finalists last season and English champions – will also be eyeing up, along with Saracens.
By contrast, Pool Four is the most open, with three-time winners Toulon enjoying a revival to lead the way, as well as sitting third domestically after winning seven of their last eight matches. But URC champions Glasgow, Harlequins and Sale all lurk dangerously.
For Ulster to reach the knock-out stages, Richie Murphy’s side almost certainly have to win away to Michael Cheika’s Leicester on Saturday, or else face a probable shoot-out for a place in the Challenge Cup at home to Exeter the following Friday.
Connacht, who entertain Lyon on Saturday evening in a Pool One Challenge Cup summit meeting before a Friday night game in Cardiff, can secure the carrot of home advantage deep into the knock-out stages.
Champions Cup Round 3 fixtures
Friday: Glasgow Warriors v Racing 92, Scotstoun, 8pm
Saturday: Stormers v Sale Sharks, DHL Stadium, 1pm; Exeter v Bordeaux-Bègles, Sandy Park, 3.15pm; Sharks v Toulouse, Kings Park, 3.15pm; Munster v Saracens, Thomond Park, 5.30pm; Stade Français v Northampton, Stade Jean Bouin, 5.30pm; Castres v Bulls, Stade Pierre-Fabre; Leicester v Ulster, Welford Road, 8pm
Sunday: Toulon v Harlequins, Stade Felix-Mayol; La Rochelle v Leinster, Stade Marcel Deflandre, 3.15pm; Bristol Bears v Benetton, Ashton Gate, 3.15pm; Bath v Clermont Auvergne, The Rec, 5.30pm
All matches live on Premier Sports, Munster v Saracens also on RTÉ
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