Like most team sports, but more so than, say, the staccato rhythms of American Football, rugby is a very interconnected game.
In the course of their four-game Autumn Series, Ireland rarely scaled the heights of their second Test win in Durban or their opening Six Nations victory in Marseille, never mind the dominant displays in that 17-match winning run to the World Cup quarter-final.
Where do Ireland go after the Autumn Nations Series?
The most obvious drop off is in Ireland’s multiphase attack, which is partly related to their lineout difficulties and is both a cause and consequence of both the reduced ruck speed and the surfeit of uncharacteristic handling errors.
They are all interrelated. Nor can all this simply be attributed to the retirement of a multigenerational player like Johnny Sexton.
Last Saturday’s 22-19 win over Australia reaffirmed over the course of the Autumn Series that when Ireland’s lineout clicks, especially, they have a plentiful array of slick and effective starter plays, and likewise off tap penalties and five-metre scrums. In those scenarios they remain a truly potent side, but their multiphase attack has lost its unrelenting accuracy, where before it must have been like defending against green waves.
Ireland did score three tries to one against the Wallabies and outscored their four autumnal opponents by 15 tries to five. Of those 15 tries, eight emanated from five-metre lineouts, two more from lineouts inside or on the 22, two from five-metre scrums and two from five-metre tap penalties.
In other words, a dozen of Ireland’s 15 tries started from a set play within five metres of the opposition line and only one from outside the opposition 22. No wonder Ireland routinely eschew three-pointers for a shot at seven-pointers. No wonder Andy Farrell likes the way Sam Prendergast invariably nails those penalties to the corner.
Only one try came from long range or recalled some of the multiphase attacks of not so long ago, namely the second try in that blitzkrieg opening half-hour or so against Argentina – probably Ireland’s high point of the series, albeit they lost their way in the second period much like they’d done against the All Blacks on opening night.
That long range, multiphase try against Los Pumas originated in Tadhg Beirne winning an ambitious restart by Thomas Albornoz about 15 metres inside Ireland’s half and ended six phases later when he passed inside for Mack Hansen to score. It involved forwards and backs interlinking, a strong carry by Robbie Henshaw in the outside entre channel, some direct running, and a big break by Garry Ringrose.
It was what me might call vintage Ireland of recent years, but it remained something of an exception rather than the norm.
Their only other try over five phases was the close-in, one-off power play off a five-metre scrum which ended with Josh van der Flier’s try against the All Blacks. Six of Ireland’s tries were first phase, two apiece came in the second, third and fourth, with one more in the fifth.
Some people reckon that Sexton, at 38, should have been replaced by Jack Crowley for the endgame of the quarter-final against the All Blacks, which ended with the Irish captain pulling the strings through an unrelenting but defiantly defended 37-phase attack. But right now, Ireland don’t look capable of keeping the ball for anything like 37 phases.
Admittedly, it’s hard to sustain attacks when a team is making 28 handling errors and what’s more conditions last Saturday were perfect.
Once famed for being next-moment focused, some players seemed to let errors linger mentally.
Ireland seemed to play an awful lot in front of Australia’s defence when, as both Brian O’Driscoll and Simon Zebo observed, they could have been more direct. Even when they were direct, they lacked penetration and when they did make breaks, they weren’t flooding the channels as of yore.
In addition, there doesn’t seem to be the same, exhaustive work-rate off the ball so as to keep providing the first and second receivers with options. It was interesting to hear Joe Schmidt talk afterwards of his team managing to “isolate” Prendergast a few times.
The reliance on five-metre lineouts tells us that Ireland’s attack has become more blunt and even though Sexton developed an unrivalled ability to scan the pitch, this cannot be attributed just to the changing of the guard.
Ireland have actually never had a better depth chart at ‘10′, all the more so when you think Paddy Jackson and Joey Carbery are playing abroad, in addition to four other capped outhalves in the provinces who were not in this Irish squad.
Yet, at the start of every World Cup cycle up to this one, Ireland have always had at least one outhalf who was relatively established at Test level, be it Eric Elwood, David Humphreys, Ronan O’Gara or Sexton, such was that quartet’s longevity.
But not so this time. There was always going to be a need to invest in at least one and ideally two or three less experienced outhalves.
The perceived wisdom is that most successful sides need an established outhalf, and when one thinks of World-Cup winning sides they have generally possessed a fairly nailed only go-to ‘10′, be it Stephen Larkham, Jonny Wilkinson, Dan Carter, Handré Pollard or whomever.
But ideally a team also needs options there. The Springboks switched courses to two outhalves in winning the World Cup, namely Manie Libbok and Pollard. In winning this year’s Rugby Championship, the all-knowing Rassie Erasmus alternated between Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Pollard and Libbok.
In the absence of Feinberg-Mngomezulu, due to a knee injury, in their three-match end-of-year tour, Erasmus started Pollard, Libbok and Jordan Hendrikse in turn.
Listening to Andy Farrell after Saturday’s game explaining that it was all part of the plan to have Jack Crowley, Prendergast and Ciaran Frawley all challenging each other to improve, using an Autumn Nations Series in this manner made utter sense.
Maybe we do become too obsessed in the identity of our number ‘10′. Maybe we do need to chill out a little on this one. Maybe this was why a post-World Cup and post-Sexton lull – even a slightly delayed one – was even more inevitable. Maybe, as a collective, they’ve just become imperceptibly weary.
The emergence of Prendergast, Gus McCarthy and Thomas Clarkson, as 33 players were used, were other bonuses. Nor are three successive wins to be sniffed at. But, on balance, overall this was a fitful and slightly disconcerting month.
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