Champions Cup Round of 16 preview
Northampton Saints v Munster
Franklin’s Gardens, Sunday, 12.30pm,
Live on BT Sports
By any logical yardstick, Northampton are entitled to start favourites and should progress to next weekend’s quarter-finals, and a home tie against, the Bulls. Their form has been more consistent, they deservedly came from behind to win with 14 men for over half of the match at Thomond Park last January and, at face value, not a whole lot has changed in the interim.
Admittedly, Northampton are missing their in-form, incumbent England fullback George Furbank, whose counterattacking off Munster’s poor kicking game was such a feature of their win in January, as well as England’s victory over Ireland in the Six Nations. Another influential figure from both those wins, scrumhalf Alex Mitchell, is back from injury, albeit on the bench.
Against that, captain Lewis Ludlam returns from last week’s 41-30 win over Saracens along with number 8 Sam Graham alongside the evergreen Courtney Lawes. Now 34, he was missed when Munster completed a pool double last season but was a key figure in their Thomond Park comeback.
Simon Zebo, having been hampered in the pool meeting and having missed last week’s clunky win over Cardiff returns. On the bench is the returning Conor Murray, which certainly makes the bench look less callow than it was last time. RG Snyman is ruled out through illness.
That said, Oli Jager’s absence has been compounded by Munster’s unsuccessful appeal against John Ryan’s three-match suspension for a tip tackle last week which a disciplinary panel upgraded from a yellow to a red card.
Hence, Ryan’s place on the bench goes to academy prop Mark Donnelly. The 23-year-old from Cork Constitution, who begins a two-year contract next season, made his Champions Cup debut against Wasps in 2021, since when he has made another seven URC appearances off the bench.
As that extraordinary, pandemic afflicted game against Wasps in December 2021 demonstrated, one can never underestimate how Munster can be inspired by this competition.
This is the first time that the Saints have hosted a home knockout clash in Northampton in the competition since 2000 (with previous matches being hosted in Milton Keynes). Although there have been reports of Munster returning a handful of tickets this is most likely because the Red Army, being the Red Army, have already sourced tickets in their own resourceful manner. Hence, there is expected to be an invasion of about 3,500 among the 15,000-plus capacity attendance.
In what is likely to be a highly fevered atmosphere, with some strong winds about, referee Mike Adamson will likely be a key figure in the contest. There are concerns about Munster’s capacity to let slip winning positions this season and the quality of their set-piece, although generally when Niall Scannell and Peter O’Mahony — no less than his counterpart Lawes an inspiring presence for his team this past decade and more — are in harness the lineout runs smoothly.
They’ll reflect ruefully too on that January clash, when three tries to the good and 20-10 ahead with half an hour remaining, only to concede a couple of daft penalties, as Graham Rowntree put it, and compound this with one daft exit which culminated in O’Mahony flooring Gavin Coombes with a hurried clearance.
Although Coombes scored Munster’s third try that day, his influence was curtailed by being moved into the second row after Ahern was stretchered off following the second knee to the head by Saints’ hooker Curtis Langdon which earned him a 37th-minute red card. And if Munster are to defy the odds and complete a successful raid in the midlands, then they will need another tour de force from their go-to number 8 akin to his astonishing display in the pool win here last season.
It has to be said too that Craig Casey and Jack Crowley were outperformed on the day by Mitchell and the assured Fin Smith less than three months ago. Flipping that is well within them, and the rest of this Munster team can perform much better than that.
Furthermore, this is a one-off cup tie and, of course, Munster have often defied logic, especially when cornered into do-or-die mode.
NORTHAMPTON SAINTS: James Ramm, Tommy Freeman, Fraser Dingwall, Burger Odendaal, Ollie Sleightholme; Fin Smith, Tom James; Emmanuel Iyogun, Curtis Langdon, Trevor Davison, Alex Moon, Alex Coles, Courtney Lawes, Lewis Ludlam (capt), Sam Graham. Replacements: Sam Matavesi, Alex Waller, Paul Hill, Temo Mayanavanua, Angus Scott-Young, Juarno Augustus, Alex Mitchell, George Hendy
Munster: Mike Haley; Seán O’Brien, Antoine Frisch, Alex Nankivell, Simon Zebo; Jack Crowley, Craig Casey; Jeremy Loughman, Niall Scannell, Stephen Archer; Tom Ahern, Tadhg Beirne (capt); Peter O’Mahony, John Hodnett, Gavin Coombes. Replacements: Eoghan Clarke, Josh Wycherley, Mark Donnelly, Jack O’Donoghue, Alex Kendellen, Conor Murray, Joey Carbery, Shay McCarthy.
Referee: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
Forecast: Munster to win.
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