Attack the French maul
For all their physicality up front, France’s maul defence was poor against Italy. Ireland’s attacking maul vs Wales was no great shakes, but forwards coach Paul O’Connell will surely have seen enough from the clash in Rome to go after.
France’s defensive lineout is generally excellent. They often throw Charles Ollivon up and he does a good job of disrupting – a pair of Italian lineouts were stolen on Sunday.
However, when France compete and possession is still secured, based on the round one evidence, you’re laughing once the maul is set. Ange Capuozzo’s try in Rome came from a poorly defended maul that led to overcommitting numbers in the 22, while Italy’s second-half penalty try also was a result of the same platform – even though France didn’t compete in the air on that occasion.
France often threw their jumper across the lineout, leaving him and his lifters on the wrong side to join the defensive effort. Add in an inability to get any pressure through the middle of the maul – desperate side-entry penalties were conceded – and Fabien Galthié's side was left with an at-times dysfunctional set-piece defence.
Concede fewer penalties
Discipline differentials don’t always indicate the victor – France conceded 18 penalties to Italy’s seven in round one – but it certainly helps your cause to avoid the levels of ill-discipline seen from Galthié's side.
Both Ireland (3.4) and France (2.2) were relatively efficient with points per 22 visit on the opening weekend, so giving free attacking platforms through penalties – or an inability to exit, case in point Italy in the first half – won’t end well for either side.
Despite being seen as a characteristically French issue in years gone by, their discipline has markedly improved. That ludicrous penalty count in Rome was their highest since 2014, while Ollivon’s card was the first yellow they have been brandished since November 2021.
Referee Matthew Carley’s breakdown interpretation was one potential source of the penalty issue. This weekend’s officiating team is being led by Wayne Barnes, another Englishman. If there is a Premiership-style interpretation that is causing issues, former referee Jerome Garces, now a member of France’s backroom staff, has had just six days to fix things.
Ireland could go a long way simply by being better acquainted with Barnes’s interpretation.
Keep up the good breakdown work
Before the win over Wales, concerns abounded that Jac Morgan and Justin Tipuric could slow down Ireland’s ball and disrupt their attacking patterns.
That proved emphatically not to be the case. Ireland won the battle of the breakdown steals (five to three) while 63.5 per cent of their rucks lasted less than three seconds. The fact Wales competed on the floor more often makes those numbers look even better.
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With Julien Marchand, Ollivon, Cyril Baille, Romain Taofifenua, Grégory Alldritt, François Cros et al, France have far more poachers to throw at Ireland. A cause for optimism? Italy limited the French to just three steals – albeit one crucial jackal did come with the game on the line.
As much as they are an improved outfit, if Italy’s forwards can produce such good quality ruck ball (68.4 per cent of rucks recycled in less than three seconds), Ireland will be even more confident of doing so.
React to the power imbalance
Everyone knows France are powerful, but to what extent? Let’s look at last year’s clash in Paris. Per Opta, in the first half France had dominant carries 41 per cent of the time, breaking the gainline on 69 per cent of carries. The same figures for Ireland were remarkably lower: 21 per cent and 43 per cent.
After half-time, those French numbers went down and Ireland’s went up; Andy Farrell’s side adjusted to the physicality. Perhaps fitness was a factor – James Lowe said this week he believes this Irish side is indeed fitter – but however Ireland clawed back the deficit, they must replicate that from the off on Saturday.
One thing to be wary of is the width of the defensive line. If Ireland narrow up, bringing bodies infield to deal with powerful carriers, Romain Ntamack will kick to the space out wide. See the scores from Thomas Ramos and Ethan Dumortier vs Italy.
Start Fast
The above contact numbers prove that Ireland started slowly last year in a significant aspect of the game. The scoreboard doesn’t necessarily always match up to the physicality stakes, but it did to a certain degree then, Mack Hansen’s opportunistic try from a kick-off the only thing keeping Ireland in touch.
Since that defeat in Paris, Ireland have done a good job of imposing themselves early on. In the 10 games between Paris 2022 and this Saturday at the Aviva, Ireland have scored 10 tries in the opening quarter, including memorable efforts in the New Zealand and three in the first 20 minutes in Cardiff.
France’s bench will have a significant say. Taofifenua won them the game last week with his offload for the winning score and a match-clinching turnover. Ireland need to maintain their trend of early points to keep the inevitable late French injection at bay.
