There’s little doubt as to which of the Irish provinces are going through the toughest midwinter spell. Ulster face the daunting task of taking on the Heineken Champions Cup holders La Rochelle at a typically partisan Stade Marcel Deflandre next Saturday (kick-off 6.30pm local time/5.30pm Irish) with confidence at a low ebb following a run of five defeats in six games.
Following last Saturday’s 31-29 loss to Benetton in Treviso, the Premier Sports commentator Rory Hamilton ventured: “This is becoming a bit of a crisis for Dan McFarland.”
Whatever about that, this has certainly been a rollercoaster season, even by Ulster’s erratic standards. Approaching half-time against Leinster in their round-nine URC summit meeting at the RDS, the 18th-minute sending-off of Cian Healy with the score at 3-3 had raised the stakes.
Ulster had won six of their first seven games, their only loss having been a 20-13 defeat by Leinster at home. They had scored 34 tries, bettered only by Leinster’s 37. Initially, they turned the screw with three first-half tries to lead 22-3. Ulster looked well primed to eat into Leinster’s eight-point lead and trim the gap to three points.
Instead, Ronan Kelleher’s try with the last play of the first-half sparked a compelling comeback by the home side, who ran out 38-29 winners. And such was the shock of that setback that, as can be their wont, Ulster let it reverberate into their ensuing Champions Cup games away to Sale and La Rochelle.
Admittedly, fate conspired against them. The night before their scheduled trip to Manchester, the Ulster squad spent four hours in Belfast International Airport before their flight was cancelled. They went home for the night – well, some of it – and set their alarm clocks to catch a 7am flight to Birmingham, from where they had a two-hour bus journey to Manchester, a 45-minute debrief in a hotel and a trek to the ground for a 1pm kick-off.
Hardly ideal. Ulster failed to score a point for the first time in their Champions Cup history, losing 39-0 to a strong Sale side who have won all bar one at Salford City Stadium this season and beat Leicester there 40-5 a fortnight ago.
A week later, Ulster’s home game against La Rochelle was moved to the Aviva Stadium at teatime the evening beforehand at the behest of the EPCR due to referee Luke Pearce deeming 60% of the Kingspan Stadium pitch to be 60% unplayable, although he also estimated it would be playable the next day.
In what amounted to an away game, Ulster trailed 29-0 at half-time. Hence, in just over 2½ games of rugby, they had scored seven points and conceded 103, albeit against both of last season’s Champions Cup finalists and away to the second best side in the Premiership.
To their credit Ulster rallied in the second period with four tries to earn two bonus points in a 36-29 loss when many teams might have chucked in the towel.
Ulster are actually scoring more freely than last season. But they are also conceding far more.
That second half rally looked to have salvaged their season. This seemed even truer when they largely subdued Connacht at the Sportsground, although after leading 22-8 inside the last ten minutes, they were indebted to Jack Carty missing a difficult conversion for a 22-20 win.
At home to Munster, they led 14-5 entering the last ten minutes and lost 15-14. Against Benetton they recovered from a 28-15 deficit inside the last quarter to lead by a point inside the last five minutes only for John Cooney to be deemed offside – the third offside call against Ulster by the Italian assistant referees, although it looked correct without any clear camera angle.
Typical of Ulster’s luck, whereas one of their conversions hit the upright (as was the case against Munster), Rhyno Smith’s match-winning 45-metre penalty to earn a sixth home win in seven games went over via the inside of an upright.
To compound their woes, Ulster have lost scrum anchor Marty Moore for the remainder of the season due to the ACL injury he suffered against Munster and are currently without Tom O’Toole. Hence Jeff Toomaga-Allen had to play the full 80 in Treviso in his first game for eight weeks after signing from Wasps.
The one rock upon which Ulster could count this season has been their lineout maul, but against Munster they lost three of their own throws in the opposition 22, and lost another three against Benetton.
Interestingly, Ulster are actually scoring more freely than last season. But they are also conceding far more. After their opening 11 URC games and two Champions Cup games last season they had scored 37 tries and conceded 23, compared to 50 tries scored and 34 conceded so far this season.
For whatever reason, Ulster have not been good at bouncing back from disappointments in recent seasons, and this arguably dates back to their Champions Cup quarter-final defeat by Leinster at the Aviva Stadium in 2019.
Admittedly, after losing 30-7 a week later against Glasgow, they recovered with three wins on the bounce before losing 50-20 in the semi-finals away to Glasgow.
Tight endgames are clearly becoming a psychological issue for Ulster too.
Two seasons ago away to Gloucester in the Champions Cup they led 34-24 on 75 minutes and lost. Re-routed to the Challenge Cup, Ulster were in flying form and led Leicester 17-6 at half-time only to lose 33-24.
Last season they led 14-man Toulouse 26-13 away in the Last 16 first leg but conceded late tries in both ties to lose 50-49 on aggregate. They subsequently led the Stormers by 15-10 entering overtime with a home final against the Bulls in the offing only to lose.
That’s a lot of mental baggage, but how do McFarland and the coaches replicate endgames in front of passionate crowds?
That said, to be in with a chance against Ronan O’Gara’s team next Saturday would be an achievement in itself. But, as in that second-half at the Aviva, and somewhat similarly, Ulster have nothing to lose. They can view it as something of a free hit.
