It's not difficult to argue the single most impressive performance of 2014 so far has been Taghrooda's King George last July. And since Tapestry subsequently beat Taghrooda it's even less difficult to see why the shortest priced of Aidan O'Brien's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe trio has been supplemented into tomorrow's €5 million Longchamp highlight.
But that apart, the difficulty scale in trying to tease out this year’s Arc winner is through the roof. On top of standard Arc question marks such as ground, the draw, and horses possibly losing their summer form in the autumn, there is also the factor that Europe’s best may simply not be good enough this time.
Japanese racing’s obsession with winning the Arc sees their most numerically strong challenge ever. A total of 16 runners from Japan have tried to win the Arc so far. None have succeeded, not even the iconic Deep Impact who was third past the post in 2008.
Three Japanese trained horses have finished runner-up, including in three of the last four years. Each of tomorrow’s trio is a proven Group One star in their homeland and it is starting to look a question of when and not if the Far East raiders achieve their ultimate goal.
Just A Way is already the world’s highest-rated performer after a scintillating Dubai success last March. If he stays he could win this by distance. But that’s a big “if”. Gold Ship is another proven Group One older horse. However those who know Japanese racing concede it’s not unknown for him to throw in a stinker occasionally while it’s a big ask for a three year old filly like Harp Star to travel across the world and reproduce her best.
Some Arcs come with a single big question mark, such as whether an outstanding performer can confirm their status, or a brilliant young talent can confirm their potential. Treve was such a winner last year. But the multitude question-marks swirling around her now are only reflective of the entire field. The Treve of 2013 would win this easily. But there are no such comparative certainties about this Arc.
Faith in Taghrooda had already relied on buying into her Yorkshire Oaks defeat by Tapestry being a result of coming into season at the wrong time. Maybe it was but there’s no doubt her chance has been compromised by a wide-draw on Sunday.
Prior to Treve last year, the last horse drawn in double-figures had been Dalakhani in 2003. It seems ridiculous the draw continues to exert such an influence on Longchamp’s biggest prizes but that isn’t going to change anytime soon.
Tapestry has drawn well, and is re-united with Ryan Moore, but she's hardly had a classic Arc prep having run over a mile last time. Of the star French three year olds, the filly Avenir Certain could be best but is unproven at the trip. They are owned by the same Qatari interests involved in Aidan O'Brien's 2013 Derby hero Ruler Of The World, a blue-riband winner who consistently flies under the profile radar but could yet wind up surprising people.
Ruler Of The World was unlucky when seventh in last year’s Arc, a place ahead of Flintshire, who was also hampered, and the pair met again last month in the Prix Foy when the Irish runner emerged best.
In such an open looking race however the best each way value could be some 33-1 about Flintshire. He has yet to get his ground in three starts this season but is forecast to get it now, has a perfect draw, and represents Andre Fabre who has won the Arc a record seven times already.
“He’ll be there, he’ll be close,” Fabre reported yesterday. “There are horses who have shown more than him but he is a fresh horse, and that will help.”
With so much otherwise unclear, such quiet confidence from the Arc master sounds reassuring.
Significant Irish hopes will be carried in all seven Group One races on Sunday and the 2012 hero Gordon Lord Byron leads three other compatriots into a fiercely competitive Prix de la Foret that still looks to present Tom Hogan’s star with a wonderful opportunity for a fourth top-flight success.
A combination of quick ground and ten furlongs also looks ideal for Tarfasha to secure the Dermot Weld-Pat Smullen team an elusive first Group One of 2014 in the Prix de l’Opera while a stall-one draw in the Prix de l’Abbaye could see Guerre surprise more than a few, including the Abbaye regular, Sole Power.
The Jean-Luc Lagadere presents a fascinating clash of international form-lines, including Ballydoyle’s Gleneagles, but Territories may surprise them all while Ervedya could confound all worries about the draw and successfully step up in the Boussac. It shapes like being that kind of contradictory Paris day.
