The retirement of Kyprios means a new stayers champion will be crowned in Thursday’s Ascot Gold Cup, either from the old guard or an emerging generation.
Illinois is from the latter category, promoted from the ranks by Aidan O’Brien after injury finished Kyprios’s outstanding career last month.
O’Brien has won the historic race a record nine times, so he knows better than anyone what’s required for such a challenge. Kyprios ranked with the four-time winner Yeats in terms of the capacity to combine stamina with class. Illinois may not be that good, but may not need to be to notch up a 10th Gold Cup for his trainer.
That last year’s Queen’s Vase winner is unproven at the gruelling 2½-mile trip is no surprise. Such stamina tests are necessarily rare on the flat. But even O’Brien and Ryan Moore can’t know for sure how Illinois will fare once reserves start to get tapped in the straight.
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What we do know is that Trawlerman will come into his own. The Godolphin star has had the thankless task of regularly crossing swords with Kyprios, finishing runner-up here a year ago, and even getting the better of his old rival under a vintage Frankie Dettori ride on the course in 2023.
“Deserves” is rarely a factor in elite sport, but there will be considerable sentiment behind Trawlerman and his stalwart stable companion, Sweet William, who ran third a year ago.
What neither has done, like Illinois, is win at Group One level yet, a feat the unexposed French star Candelari has already done in his short career. That was in last month’s Prix Vicomtesse Vigier over two miles when emerging as a decisive winner.
France has won the Gold Cup 15 times since the war, but it has been two decades since the last of them, Westerner. He subsequently had enough class to finish runner-up in a Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Candelari may not prove to be quite at that level, but he does have an intriguing profile going into this Gold Cup. He has had just a handful of races in his life and never raced on conditions nearly as fast as this. A glass-half-full interpretation of that suggests he may thrive on it.
As it is, an official rating of 118 puts him joint top of the eight runners alongside Trawlerman. Unlike that admirable stayer, he also looks to be still on an upward career curve and could progress to fill the Kyprios-sized hole in the Stayers’ division.
The Norfolk Stakes has proved trappy for Ballydoyle over the years. The subsequent world champion juvenile Johannesburg scored easily in 2001 but only Waterloo Bridge (2015) and Sioux Nation have won since.
There have been some highly touted and short-priced failures in a race with a history of surprises, none greater than Valiant Force at 150-1 a couple of years ago. Last year, O’Brien’s Whistlejacket was only fourth at odds-on.
This time, he saddles Charles Darwin, who has won two of his three starts. If Albert Einstein is the apple of his trainer’s eye among this crop of Ballydoyle juveniles, then Gstaad’s Coventry success on Tuesday shows there’s real depth in the squad. Charles Darwin can prove it again.
O’Brien has three chances to secure a record sixth success in the Ribblesdale Stakes, although upped in trip, Serenity Prayer could prove tough to beat on the back of a Musidora second to Whirl.
O’Brien relies solely on Trinity College in the Hampton Court, where he clashes again with the Gosden-trained Detain.
The pair finished a head apart when third and fourth in the French Derby. Trinity College raced prominently on that occasion, with his stable companion Camille Pissarro getting up his inside for a memorable win.
Detain looked to fade slightly in the final strides at Chantilly and a more tactically restrained ride this time could enable Trinity College to go close to a fifth Hampton Court for O’Brien.
The Wathnan team’s emergence as a big Royal Ascot player can be underlined once again should Sing Us A Song confirm the good impression made recently at Sandown in the King George V Handicap. They can also fancy their chances with Consolidation in the Britannia.
