A sound argument can be made for El Fabiolo being the biggest danger to himself in Wednesday’s Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham.
Willie Mullins’s outstanding star is unbeaten in six starts over fences and will be cramped odds to succeed his sidelined stable companion Energumene as king of the two-mile division.
However, if the bare record is faultless, El Fabiolo’s opposition will pin their hopes on how his jumping has sometimes been very far from that. It might smack of nitpicking but in all six of those races El Fabiolo has to various degrees given at least one fence a “rub”.
They have varied from the spectacular, such as a howler at last year’s Dublin Racing Festival that would have put many on the floor, to the just plain clumsy as in when returning to action at Cork in November.
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There was also an awkward error at the last when getting the better of old rival Jonbon in last year’s Arkle here.
On no occasion have they put a stop to his gallop, which is perhaps no surprise given El Fabiolo’s tank-like physique.
Even among Mullins’s vast squad, and to the most inexpert of eyes, the seven-year-old stands out as an impressive physical specimen, exuding vast power and athleticism.
It may make him something of an immovable object for seven opponents due to take him on in the day two highlight.
Chief among them once again is Jonbon, although his presence alone is a reminder of how, no matter the SP, things need to go smoothly when the afterburners are on full tap over the minimum trip.
Jonbon’s brother Douvan started 2-9 for this race in 2019 and ruined his chance at the third fence. He got over it, but appeared to injure himself and was never the same again.
Jonbon is owned by JP McManus whose stellar Cheltenham CV still has one notable gap in the Champion Chase. It has remained frustratingly elusive, including when Defi Du Seuil flopped as a 2-5 favourite in 2020.
Nico De Boinville is back on Jonbon again and recently pointed out the obvious, that El Fabiolo is always capable of a mistake.
That any horse is capable of such was underlined by Jonbon himself when his prep for this race in January turned into a jumping horror show.
How he survived a horrendous blunder four out, and still managed to run Elixir Du Nutz to a neck, was commendable. But if it was impressively resilient, it hardly smacked of an ideal festival prep.
If pace-forcing tactics are employed by Edwardstone, part of the logic is likely to be a hope that a blunder can be forced out of El Fabiolo.
The favourite has remained immune to such jumping vagaries so far and plenty will work on the basis that his singular style isn’t worth fixing if nothing’s broken. Besides which, there’s always the potential for a day when everything works perfectly and that will probably mean no danger at all.
Brian O’Connor’s Cheltenham tips – Day 2
1.30: Ballyburn; 2.10: Fact To File; 2.50: Doddiethegreat; 3.30: El Fabiolo; 4.10: Delta Work; 4.50: Maskada (nap); 5.30: Fleur Au Fusil
Nap and double: Maskada & Fleur Au Fusil
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