By definition, handicaps often revolve around how much might be hidden up one’s sleeve, but rarely has there been a big race “unknown unknown” like Ocastle Des Mottes in Saturday’s Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.
Worth more than €180,000, Britain’s richest handicap hurdle has been presented with a real riddle by Willie Mullins. Ireland’s champion trainer has sent a trio of hopefuls to Newbury, although it is Ocastle Des Mottes around which much will revolve.
The French import hasn’t raced since June when winning at Auteuil, after which he was moved to Mullins by new owners, Simon Munir and Issac Souede.
That the handicapper in Ireland has assigned Ocastle Des Mottes a mark of 139 makes his cross-channel rating of 133 an eye-catching divergence of opinion.
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Throw in how it will be his first start for new connections, as well as how some readings of the form of his other French success at Compèigne in April suggest either mark might be lenient, and it’s easy to see why bookmakers haven’t been taking chances.
Against that, however, Paul Townend has opted to stay in Ireland and ride at Naas on Saturday, leaving Daryl Jacob to take the spin. There is also the fact that almost all of Ocastle Des Mottes’s French form is over a quarter of a mile further than the Newbury test.
Nevertheless, with ground conditions sure to be gruelling, and not knowing what Mullins has been able to mould from such promising raw material, the potential exists for the new recruit to be thrown in here.
Such a theory can often come up against practical reality, though. It is a couple of years since Gaelic Warrior’s debut for Mullins was delayed to Cheltenham and a 129 rating was widely presumed to be a gift from the punting gods in the Boodles.
The mercurial star started a hot favourite and wound up being beaten a short head by Brazil after catching everyone on the hop by revealing for the first time an unfortunate tendency to jump to his right.
“He’s a horse that’s been bought for steeplechasing next year, so if we were going to run him this spring we were going to run him in a valuable handicap hurdle,” said Anthony Bromley, spokesman for Ocastle Des Mottes’s owners.
“He’s lower rated in England than Ireland so that’s why he’s coming to England, and it will give him some experience of big fields and the tempo of British racing.
“Two miles might be a bit short for him. He does want soft ground. I wouldn’t know if he should be favourite but I find that the French horses that have their first run in an English big-field handicap, they can get a shock from the tempo of the race.”
No Irish-trained horse has won the big Newbury handicap since Essex in 2005 and Ocastle Des Mottes is accompanied by stable companions Onlyamatteroftime and Alvaniy. The latter will be ridden by Bryony Frost.
Ordinarily, given his outstanding race record, Nicky Henderson might have expected to be firmly centre stage with four runners that include a topweight and a pair of JP Manus hopefuls further down the ratings.
Iberico Lord is 1lb above Ocastle Des Mottes but is a much clearer proposition considering he landed another big handicap prize, the Greatwood, at Cheltenham in October.
Brian Hayes has the unenviable task of steering Onlyamatteroftime, a horse with an unfortunate history of running out in races. He was on his best behaviour in his last start at Ascot though and gets weight from all the field.
Another mercurial character is Henderson’s Gold Cup hope Shishkin, who warms up for Cheltenham’s “Blue Riband” in the earlier Denman Chase.
Having refused to race at Ascot, and then unseating Nico De Boinville on the flat when apparently in charge of the King George, Shishkin’s connections will be hoping for a straightforward winning display against four opponents.
