The debates are raging. Chris Froome will win because he dominated last year's race, and because he won the Tours of Oman and Romandie this year. No, say Alberto Contador's supporters; the Spaniard will triumph because he took Tirreno Adriatico and the Vuelta a Pais Vasco, almost won the Critérium du Dauphiné, the Volta ao Algarve and the Volta a Catalunya, and is back to his best level.
Back and forth. Fan versus fan. Briton versus Spaniard. In truth, in a race as unpredictable, as challenging and as dangerous as the Tour, it’s impossible to say with certainty who will prevail. The important point, though, is that we have a real contest this year.
Froome's Sky team has looked more fallible than it has in several seasons, a handful of his rivals appear to have made progress, and the expectation is that the contest could be the closest since Cadel Evans' one minute 34 second beating of Andy Schleck in 2011.
If Froome is feeling the pressure, he wasn’t showing it too much yesterday. The 2013 victor appeared at a pre-race press conference in Leeds, Britain with the rest of his team; he was relaxed, seemed calm, even while accepting that the race will likely be much tighter this time round.
“I think given the structure of the Tour this year and the diversity of all the different challenges . . . we have got the cobbles and we have got all the tricky stages up here north, we have got five summit finishes and we have got a 54-kilometre time trial, it is not possible to say this guy or that guy is going to win,” Froome said. “I definitely won’t say that I am going to win. But I will say that I will give it my absolute everything.
‘Tough competition’
“There is no doubt about it – I am going to have a lot of tough competition this year. As I have seen in other races, it is not going to be a walk in the park, by any means. But I have got I think a really, really strong team here. I would arguably say this is probably the strongest team we have fielded for a
Tour de France
, and we are up for it.”
Contador’s own squad is due to meet the press today, and will give its own assessment there. However, yesterday it unveiled the new-look Tinkoff Saxo kit it will be using in the Tour. The jersey and shorts have been predominantly yellow all season, laying early claim to the Tour’s hallowed colour of race leader, but race organisers ASO have instructed the team to back off in that regard in order to avoid confusion. The squad has consequently replaced the hue with a fluorescent colour scheme. However, if Contador has his way, he’ll be back in yellow soon.
He appears transformed from the subdued rider who lacked zip last season and who faded in the final week to finish fourth overall; this season he is much more like the competitor who dominated the 2009 Tour.
That encourages his fans, but has also led to some speculation. He tested positive for Clenbuterol in the 2010 Tour, losing that title as a result and incurring a suspension. Should he go on to win the Tour, he will face questions about whether or not his return to top form was clean.
He insists it is, saying that he is more focused this year. He also says that following Froome and Team Sky’s example, that he has been doing a lot of altitude training and has benefited from that.
One boost to his chances seems the strength of his team. The Tinkoff Saxo riders have been in strong form this season and are intent on doing what they can to deliver the Spaniard to a third Tour de France success. The squad may have lost one of its strongest men in recent days when Roman Kreuziger confirmed that his biological passport is under scrutiny, but Contador still has a number of very strong lieutenants behind him.
Irish rider
One of those is
Nicolas Roche
, the sole Irish rider in this year’s race. Earlier this month he took his first-ever overall stage race victory as a professional, winning the Route du Sud. He has recovered fully from the Giro d’Italia and will put aside his own personal ambitions to ride for his team leader. Should Contador take the lead early on, he will need all the horsepower the squad can give him to hold on.
There are other challengers too, of course; former world number one Seán Kelly told The Irish Times yesterday that even if Contador and Froome appear the most likely to fight for yellow, it would it be a mistake to rule out riders such as Vincenzo Nibali and Alejandro Valverde. He also noted that the first week of the race is technically challenging and likely to be dangerous; this is particularly the case on the fifth stage to Arenberg Porte du Hainaut, which includes some of the cobblestone sections of Paris-Roubaix.
That 155.5-kilometre leg will be one of the most important days in the race, and so too the five summit finishes. The first of these is the category one La Planche des Belles Filles in 10 days’ time; there are also the mountain top finishes of Chamrousse and Risoul in the Alps, and Saint Lary Pla d’Adet and Hautacam in the Pyrenees.
They will shape the race and go a long way towards determining the final winner. The penultimate day’s 54-kilometre time trial in Bergerac will also be crucial. Froome appears the strongest time trialist out of the general classification contenders, and will take encouragement from that. However, his confidence has been shaken a little by the drop in form he showed when he crashed while leading the Critérium du Dauphiné last month.
“I think every season comes with its own set of challenges. This year has been no different. I have had issues with my lower back early season, I have had chest problems this year,” he said. “I had that crash in the Dauphiné, which definitely set me back a little bit.”
Still, he is encouraged by more recent indications. “The last week of training prior to coming here has been really good. I feel I am very similar form to last year. I would definitely say I am ready for this.”
