That time of year and with it that great guessing game again. What will be the make-up of the Irish team to play New Zealand on November 15th. The composition of the team is coming sharply into focus - the line-up will be chosen and announced tomorrow week - and is exercising the minds of players, coaches, hacks, alickadoos and interested parties alike.
This latest imponderable is given added interest in that it will be, effectively, Brian Ashton's first true side and they will be facing the world's premier rugby outfit. The Irish coach was more or less on a fire brigade mission last season, dousing out the flames here, moving on to the next fire there, more or less with a squad he inherited and little in the way of local knowledge.
After a development tour, and close on a dozen weeks of trawling the European competitions and the English club game, along with four squad sessions, Ashton and his fellow selectors Pat Whelan and Donal Lenihan have a pretty clear idea of what their preferred starting XV will be. But a welter of injuries, to Jim Staples, Simon Geoghegan, David Corkery, Jonathan Bell and now Jeremy Davidson, have compounded other, nagging concerns.
The picture might become a little clearer in the interim, for they are meeting this week with a view to adding a few more fully-contracted players to the original squad. The flaws in the current system are amply illustrated by the continuing absence of six players on Category Two contracts of £35,000, plus a car, from this week's session in addition to four absentees because of long-term injuries.
Meantime, there are again nine non-contracted players taking part. And Ireland hasn't even played a game yet! The initial contracts were chosen a little prematurely, I think.
The new professionals are liable to come from a short-list of Kevin Nowlan, John McWeeney, Alan Quinlan, Reggie Corrigan, Trevor Brennan and Conor McGuinness, in the aforementioned Category Two. Dylan O'Grady, Richie Wallace, Brian Cusack, and Mark McCall come into the equation as English-based, Category Five squad members. McGuinness and Quinlan look particularly strong candidates, though there are arguments for all of them. It seems safe to presume that the selectors' major sources of debate or doubt on the team itself will be midfield, second row and back row. There are options aplenty for the latter two areas, less so the further the selectors move away from the pack.
With Staples seemingly out of the equation indefinitely, Conor O'Shea looks likely to be one of the first names on the team sheet. On last season's form and on try-scoring potential Denis Hickie must be the favourite for the number 14 shirt, though he has been one of Leinster's more disappointing players in the European Cup. He has, however, a touch of class and remains Ireland's best finisher.
The left-wing slot may partly hinge on the midfield combination, in that Jonathan Bell or Kevin Maggs could be considered out wide. Ever mindful of the physical presence of an All Black backline containing Carlos Spencer, Frank Bunce, Alama Ieremia (or Walter Little) and Tana Umaga (or, er, Jonah Lomu), the prefered partnership might be Rob Henderson and Bell. McWeeney, as a relatively recently converted lock, is the strongest of the three other candidates for the wing.
However, Bell has been confined to 20 minutes' rugby since mid-August and neglible participation in the weekly sessions by a nagging hamstring problem. Maggs, used regularly toward the end of the Development tour in New Zealand because of his physique and strong tackling, could well come into the reckoning. A Henderson-Maggs partnership with the experience of Richie Wallace on the left wing might be the call.
Eric Elwood boasts an altogether greater defensive and physical presence than David Humphreys, comparatively limited by injury this season. Elwood, by contrast, has been playing winning rugby in a winning team. His presence could also shade the verdict for in-form Connacht half back partner McGuinness over Brian O'Meara - technically a sounder passer but having taken some time to hit form this season.
A front row of Nick Popplewell, Keith Wood (as captain) and Paul Wallace, or, if you like, Poppy, Woody and Wally, has a certain easy ring to it.
Options abound in the second row, where the case for ignoring the frighteningly multi-talented one, Malcolm O'Kelly, recedes with each passing week - all the more so after Sunday's awesome all-round performance for London Irish. In any other era, O'Kelly might have a dozen caps already.
Admittedly, Gabriel Fulcher was the heartbeat of the Development pack in New Zealand and has a more natural looking partnership with Jeremy Davidson. Meantime, Paddy Johns is one of the few playing in a winning team (Saracens) and the favoured Brian Cusack impressed Ashton on Saturday for Bath. Poor Mick Galwey, the in-form stalwart of the Munster pack, can't get a look in. Discarded at 31?
If Davidson recovers in time the selectors might well have been considering emulating London Irish's example on Saturday by pairing him with O'Kelly. Should Davidson yet be ruled out, O'Kelly's belated first cap looks certain, perhaps alongside Fulcher. At one recent session there were nine back rows in attendance. Victor Costello is playing the rugby of his life and has compared well in two meetings with Eric Miller; getting over the gain line every time and tackling better than ever. There's a theory that Miller might even be moved to accommodate Costello. But Miller is the resident number eight and Lion, adds an extra dimension to Ireland's or any team's play with the ball and number eights see more of the ball than other back row players. In any case, the selectors will probably favour a genuine open side for the type of game Ashton is seeking to generate.
Even in David Corkery's absence, the contenders for the flankers' slots are legion. David Erskine, Trevor Brennan and Eddie Halvey probably lead the way. Erskine was one of two players on the Development tour who was consistently able to take on New Zealanders on the gain line. Erskine at number six and Miller at number eight leaves scope for a true open side in a good, ball-playing back row. Dylan O'Grady's is struggling with an injury In which case, the Shannon/Munster pair of Halvey and Quinlan might miss out to Kieran Dawson, fit again and playing well.He tackles well and is and excellent going forward, which suits Ashton's continuity-based game. But then, a good half-dozen of this selection could be wide of the mark, he concluded emphatically.
