In 2015 Waterford built steadily through the season and were competitive all the way.
The problem with this year is that they appear to have peaked between league and early championship. Their stock was highest after the emphatic defeat of Clare just weeks after the counties’ two-match tussle in the league final.
At this stage that line of form has pulled into a siding with a fair amount of track left to traverse. Central to this turn of events was the effective non-appearance in the Munster final.
Getting taken for five goals in a 21-point defeat was bound to have an effect on a team that has been steadily incorporating young hurlers and playing to a well-drilled defensive game plan.
There was a sense of anxiety about the Wexford quarter-final, which was surely a hangover from the Tipperary match. The less inhibited game that had begun to emerge against Clare appeared to be shelved so that order could be restored.
Individual form
It’s been frequently reiterated that no system could have survived the collapse in individual form that Waterford suffered in
Limerick
and that’s part of another problem.
A year ago Maurice Shanahan arguably clinched his All Star against Kilkenny by playing brilliantly in a defiant lone-attacker role and being digitally precise with his free -taking.
Now he's off the frees because Pauric Mahony is back from injury but the latter – who has in the past couple of years been as good as any free taker in the game – has been experiencing the yips, signs of which early in the Munster final were the first indication that the day mightn't go well for the challengers.
While Mahony has been struggling Shanahan has looked out of sorts – whether or not the loss of free-taking duties has influenced that – and the earlier-season promise of Shane Bennett and Patrick Curran hasn't crystallised.
Kilkenny, as can be seen elsewhere on these pages, get goals. Last year Waterford had conceded just seven in eight competitive matches but one mistake at the back and TJ Reid had knocked in an eighth and the defence is looking shakier at present than 12 months ago.
They will need to pick up form because Richie Hogan, who looked more enraged than rested at missing game time because of injury, roared into the Leinster final at half-time, showing the sort of energy that made him Hurler of the Year in 2014.
The one bright spot this summer for Waterford has been the under-21s who have won the Munster title. Stephen Bennett has been a star performer but although he made an impression in last year's championship there is reason to believe that the more conventional finisher's role with the 21s suits him better than the demands of the seniors' structure.
Against that Kilkenny are again moving smoothly. Jonjo Farrell has seamlessly replaced the injured Ger Aylward and if by definition he isn't proven all the way up, he's done all asked of him so far.
Formidable unit
The champions’ defence has settled into a formidable unit and features a fine set of half-backs.
The inside line may not be the best the county’s ever had but it contains two All Stars, is competent and gets plenty of cover.
It’s hard to see where Waterford can make the impact necessary to break open this contest.
With all the question marks over individual form, is it reasonable to expect Derek McGrath to throw caution to the wind?
If he doesn’t, how can the outcome be much different to last year and if he does what are the chances that it will end up unleashing Kilkenny’s forwards as much as his own.
