Dublin Central provided one of the most nail-biting races of last year’s general election, with Labour’s Marie Sherlock famously reeling in Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch to take the last seat.
With Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe heading for Washington DC, this byelection (expected in late spring) promises another fascinating contest.
Fianna Fáil
The party’s standard bearer in Bertie Ahern’s former constituency is Senator Mary Fitzpatrick, who stood in her first general election in 2007.
RM Block
Her chances of coming home this time won’t be helped by the generally dismal government record in byelections, although some of Donohoe’s personal vote will be up for grabs and she is a well-established parliamentarian with many years of service in the constituency.
However, she may have to overcome an internal party battle if she wants to be on the ticket, with Cllr John Stephens indicating to The Irish Times this week that he wants to run.
Stephens, who was backed by Ahern in the local elections last year, took a seat in Cabra-Glasnevin ahead of Eimear McCormack, who was co-opted into Fitzpatrick’s council seat when she was appointed to the Seanad in 2020.
Fine Gael
Donohoe fought some pitched battles down the years to win and hold the Dublin Central seat for Fine Gael, which takes in leafy heartlands in Drumcondra and Glasnevin (and the hipsters of Stoneybatter and Phibsborough) but also encompasses the North Inner City and working class areas like Cabra.
Current Dublin Lord Mayor Ray McAdam represents the North Inner City half of the constituency and is the continuity candidate for Donohoe, having worked in his Oireachtas office previously. Cllr Gayle Ralph, who took a seat in Cabra-Glasnevin, is seen as strong in Drumcondra, where insiders say you need to pull a vote to stand a chance of success.
Either she or Cllr Colm O’Rourke, also in Cabra-Glasnevin, may throw their hat in the ring, but McAdam is the early favourite.
Green Party
One of two councillors – Feljin Jose from Cabra-Glasnevin or Janet Horner from the North Inner City – will be the party’s candidate. They will face an uphill battle to reclaim a seat here, but whoever runs will likely take the mantle on in the next general election.
Independents
Dublin Central was ground zero for the wave of protests against International Protection Accommodation Service (IPAS) accommodation in 2022 and 2023 as migration politics became newly relevant in Ireland.
Malachy Steenson, who contested the last Dublin Central byelection (caused by the death of Tony Gregory) in 2009 for the Workers Party, was a leader of these early protests and was elected as an Independent for the North Inner City in 2024.
He confirmed on Wednesday that he intends to run, despite receiving less than five per cent of the vote in last year’s general election. Expectations are that anti-immigration activists will target the byelection as a shop window, even if they will likely struggle to win out over established parties.
Nick Delahanty, who sought nominations for the presidential ballot and ran unsuccessfully on the southside in local and general elections last year, is also considering crossing the river and running, he told The Irish Times. All eyes will also be on Hutch, who is reported to be considering a second bid for a Dáil seat after vastly outperforming expectations last year.
Byelections, however, are even more challenging. An independent candidate from the left can’t be ruled out – Daniel Lambert, chief operating officer of Bohemian Football Club and manager of Belfast rap trio Kneecap, is perennially linked with a run. He didn’t respond to queries on Wednesday.
Independent Cllr Christy Burke is also considering a run. A strong independent could easily poll well.
Labour
There’s no obvious candidate for the party, which has no local representatives in the area – although TD Sherlock is bullish about her party’s chances. Labour is beginning a search for candidates in the coming days. It could benefit from a transfer pact on the left, with Dublin Central another proving ground for how effective burgeoning Dáil alliances may become.
People Before Profit
No decision has been made on running a candidate yet but the party will probably put someone in the field, most likely folk musician Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin, who ran unsuccessfully in the locals and general election last year, polling respectably in both.
Sinn Féin
The party will benefit from being in Opposition and the race being in leader Mary Lou McDonald’s constituency. That said, her vote won’t map directly on to the Sinn Féin candidate, which will have to defend its working class heartlands from Independents and remains vulnerable on immigration, even if it has shifted position here.
North Inner City councillor Janice Boylan was McDonald’s running mate in the general election, but polled just 4 per cent first preferences, finishing behind Ó Ceannbháin, Clare Daly, Hourigan and Steenson. Boylan was previously reported to have fallen out with the party, writing to its members that she was “humiliated numerous times” and that the party had failed to support her.
However, bridges appear to have been mended in time for the general election last year and she is seen as most likely to represent Sinn Féin at this point.
Social Democrats
Gary Gannon is now a two-term TD for Dublin Central and beat Donohoe into third place last year despite trailing him on first preferences. Either Cllr Cat O’Driscoll in Cabra-Glasnevin or Cllr Daniel Ennis in the North Inner City will run for the party.
Like Labour and the Greens, it could benefit from left alliances – however, this may not move beyond a loose “vote left, transfer left” stance, with the Galway West byelection seen as a better test bed for something more formal.
