So as the dust settles on a historic result, who are the winners and losers?
The Losers
Fianna Fáil
The most obvious losers are Fianna Fáil, its candidate and its leader.
This is Fianna Fáil’s worst election result ever. Jim Gavin, though excruciatingly still on the ballot paper on Friday, crashed and burned in the early stages of the campaign after it emerged that he still owed a former tenant, who unfortunately for him happened to be the deputy editor of the Sunday World, €3,000.
But even before that revelation it was clear that Gavin’s campaign was not taking off. His identification and selection – over the objections of a significant portion of his TDs – is almost certainly the greatest misjudgement of Micheál Martin’s leadership. That cannot be without consequences.
RM Block
It would be overstating the case to say that the result puts Martin’s leadership in immediate jeopardy, though the level of muttering on the subject is likely to increase now that the result is in. But certainly the question of when exactly he is likely to hand over is one that is likely to become asked more common. His authority is substantially damaged.
Politics is a forward-looking business and tends not to dwell on past failures too much. But that looking forward now includes looking forward to the next leader. That can’t be put back in the bottle now.
Fine Gael
Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil’s partner in the Coalition, is a loser too. It’s not as spectacular a failure as its Government partners, but it’s an awful day for leader Simon Harris and his party.
True, the party lost its number one choice for candidate and was forced into a late change. But there were some people in the party who believed that Heather Humphreys, a former government minister, would actually be a better candidate than Mairead McGuinness, a former MEP. But it is becoming clear that the unanimous admiration of Fine Gaelers is not a reliable guide to who may be popular with the public.
The fact is that after an ineffective campaign – some of which was roundly criticised – their candidate was trounced. Fine Gael is developing an unavoidably conspicuous habit of making a mess of election campaigns.
Harris’s discomfort may be less intense that’s but he went into this election with perhaps a greater need of a boost – and he did not get it. We will never know if he should have picked Sean Kelly, the party’s MEP for Ireland South, but there are grounds for suspecting it. At the start of the campaign, senior Fine Gaelers really believed they could win if they stayed ahead of Gavin.
The celebrity candidate
The whole idea of celebrity candidates was also one of the losers. Political parties love attracting well-known names to run for them, hoping to translate their name recognition and success into votes. Sometimes it happens, sometimes it doesn’t.
But you can be sure that in future parties will interrogate whether willing celebrities have the chops to handle a bruising election campaign. As we have learned, not all do.
Turnout
Turnout was a big loser. Against most expectations, turnout was not below 40 per cent, which would have been significantly lower than at the last presidential election, back in 2018.
Ironically, the final figure was probably pushed up by people who went out not to elect a president, but to spoil their vote – for whatever reason.
But less than half of those eligible to vote actually bothered. Whoever you blame, that is not a good sign for the health of Irish democracy.
The Winners
Sinn Féin and Mary Lou McDonald
Beyond the winner – Independent TD Catherine Connolly – herself, in the broad coalition of the left that delivered victory for her, there are lots of other winners.
But one stands out. After a summer of humming and hawing, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald ruled herself out (despite some voices in her own party urging her in) and threw her party’s considerable campaigning weight behind Connolly.
McDonald turned weakness into victory – that is what talented politicians do. Sinn Féin’s declaration for Connolly turned into one of the turning points of the campaign. The broad left has been significantly strengthened – and Sinn Féin is the leader of the left.
Could Sinn Féin have won it on their own? As things turned out, the answer is probably yes. But if this is the first electoral step in the emergence of a viable left alternative for government, that might be more important.
The parties of the left
Plaudits too for Labour and the Social Democrats, for different reasons. Along with People Before Profit, the Soc Dems were part of the original Team Connolly, having none of Labour’s qualms that Connolly was rather too left-wing for them. Their view was that a single left candidate needed to get into the field early and gradually bring allies on board. They were proved spectacularly right.
The Greens and Labour were faced with the prospect of backing Connolly or sitting it out. Labour leader Ivana Bacik pushed through her view that the party had to back Connolly against some strong opposition and a fair bit of significant unease. The Greens suffered some high-profile defections. But winning is the ultimate vindication.
Campaigners for a united Ireland
The campaign for a united Ireland now has an ally in the Áras. Though Connolly had not previously demonstrated a tremendous interest in the subject, she lost no opportunity, first when courting Sinn Féin support and then when buoyed by it, to not just promote the idea of a united Ireland, but to advocate for a border poll during her term of office. This may turn out to be one of subjects of tension between the Aras and Government Buildings in the coming years.
The spoil-your-vote campaigners
Those advocating for people to spoil their votes won a big result with the numbers, at about 13 per cent of ballots spoiled, significantly greater than previously recorded. They did not have a single message – beyond being unhappy with the choice of candidate offered to them – but taken together they are a minority that cannot be ignored.
Maria Steen
Maria Steen, previously a moderately well-known conservative campaigner who was prominent in recent referendum campaigns, was catapulted into political prominence by her failed attempt to gain entry to the race.
Steen’s late bid to secure 20 Oireachtas nominations has made her the leader-in-waiting of Ireland’s social conservatives and the object of handbag envy for some. It’s not clear whether Steen has wider political ambitions. But certainly lots of people will be very interested in what she does next. Peadar Tóibín, leader of Aontú, used the campaign skilfully to promote himself and his party.
Catherine Connolly
The biggest winner of all, of course, is the new president-elect. It’s fair to say that few thought Connolly was a likely winner when she declared as an Independent candidate in mid-July, backed by the Social Democrats, People Before Profit and a handful of Independents.
But her campaign – she preferred to call it a movement – built the momentum of a juggernaut, even as her rivals faltered. By the middle of the campaign, she was unstoppable.
Now she must transition from candidate to president. Will she be able to promote her ideas and principles – the desire for a “new republic” that animated her campaign – in a way that avoids conflict with the Government?
Or is a new chapter in the presidency about to be written? That is for the future. For now, she can savour a famous victory.
