I’m a bit confused about this presidential election
How so?
I thought I had only two choices – Catherine Connolly or Heather Humphreys – after Jim Gavin withdrew on October 5th. But now I see Gavin is still on the ballot paper. How come?
Let’s ask Art O’Leary, chief executive of the Electoral Commission, which oversees the whole process. “The law on this issue is very clear,” says O’Leary. “Nominated candidates can only withdraw from the presidential election up until the moment the returning officer rules on the validity of nominations – which in this case was at 3pm on September 24th. Any candidate withdrawing after that point is simply withdrawing from campaigning, not from the election itself.”
But what happens if Jim Gavin wins?
“The winning candidate can either take up office on November 11th,” explains O’Leary. “Or they can indicate that they decline to do so. Under Article 12.3.3 of the Constitution, that would trigger a fresh election within 60 days.”
Thanks for that Art. Go back to work. But I still have some questions for you, nameless provider of answers to tricky questions. So to be absolutely clear, a vote for any of the three candidates, including Gavin, is a valid vote – and you can still transfer to another candidate?
Yes. As in all elections conducted under proportional representation, if no candidate reaches the quota on the first count, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their second preferences are distributed in the usual way.
RM Block
Right. But I don’t particularly like any of these three candidates. Is the best way to register my disapproval simply not to vote?
You can, of course, abstain. But that’s not the most effective way to express dissatisfaction. Your abstention will be counted alongside those who didn’t bother, didn’t care or were too busy to vote. And remember, your vote is an important democratic right – worth valuing and using whenever possible.
I suppose I could deliberately spoil my vote
You could. In fact, there’s an active campaign by supporters of conservative activist Maria Steen, who failed to secure a nomination, urging people to do exactly that. If you want to show support for that campaign, you can write a slogan or message on the ballot instead of marking your preferences.
Will those spoiled votes be counted?
Yes. The Returning Officer will announce the number of spoiled votes, which are deducted from the overall number of ballots to produce what’s called the “total valid poll”. That figure is used to calculate the quota and to determine whether candidates qualify for reimbursement of expenses. However, no distinction is made between different kinds of spoiled votes, so any sense of a co-ordinated protest will rely on anecdotes from the count itself. And, of course, a spoiled vote has no impact on the result.
Why might people still vote for Jim Gavin?
There are a few possible reasons. Some Fianna Fáil politicians have said they’ll back him out of loyalty to the party’s nominee, whatever the circumstances, and that may hold true for some supporters too. Others might vote for him in the hope that he wins and then declines the office, prompting a new election. Some may give Gavin their first preference as a protest, then transfer to whichever of the remaining candidates they dislike least. And, inevitably, a few might do it just for the craic.
Is there a risk that if I give Gavin my first preference, my second preference might be wasted?
No. In a three-candidate race, there are only two possible outcomes on the first count: either one candidate reaches the quota (50 per cent of votes cast plus one) and is elected, or the lowest-polling candidate is eliminated and their second preferences are distributed. After that, whichever of the remaining two has the higher total is deemed elected, whether or not they reach the quota. So as long as you use your second preference, your vote stays active until the count concludes.
Is there any point in using my third preference?
In this case, no. In a three-horse race, marking a third preference or leaving it blank amounts to the same thing.
