Former chief medical officer Tony Holohan has offered the strongest signal yet that he will enter the race for the presidency as he described the results of research carried out on his potential candidacy as “encouraging”.
Prof Holohan’s supporters, who back a run for Áras an Uachtaráin, used polling company Amárach Research to explore his viability as a candidate.
Participants in a survey were asked to rank their preferred choice for president out of five names listed.
Fine Gael’s Mairead McGuinness led the field on 29 per cent while Independent candidate Catherine Connolly was next on 22 per cent. These two are the only candidates who appear at this stage to have secured the nominations required to appear on the ballot paper.
RM Block
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, who has not ruled out a presidential run, was on 20 per cent.
Prof Holohan was on 15 per cent and former taoiseach Bertie Ahern – who has been among those speculated on as a potential Fianna Fáil candidate – was also on 15 per cent.
Prof Holohan was CMO during the Covid-19 pandemic and should he seek the presidency, he will likely face scrutiny over his high-profile role at the time.
Asked about the polling, Prof Holohan said he has been “greatly encouraged” by people contacting him and suggesting he should run.
“Some supporters arranged for this limited piece of research and I was aware it was taking place. The results are encouraging, especially as I have not declared my candidacy,” he said.
Prof Holohan said entering the race is a “significant decision” and he is consulting with family and friends.
“I am conscious that any bid to secure a nomination needs a serious campaign. If I decide to proceed, I am confident I can put such a campaign in place quickly. I am fully aware that the decision will have to be made very soon,” he added.
Those wishing to secure a place on the presidential election ballot paper must secure nominations from 20 Oireachtas members or four local authorities.
Last weekend, businessman Gareth Sheridan announced he is entering the race and will seek council nominations.
The field work for the Amárach Research survey was carried out between July 29th and 31st, before Mr Sheridan made his announcement.
Labour Party backs Connolly
The questions on the presidency were posed as part of a wider omnibus survey on different topics.
Amárach Research chairman Gerard O’Neill said the research was conducted online and it was “a nationally representative survey of 1,000 adults”, randomly selected from a larger panel maintaining quotas for age, gender, region and social class.
He said the research offered an “interesting snapshot” on the presidential election, but also that “ideally you would go further” and also look at areas like likelihood of voting and party affinities.
He said there is typically a margin of error of plus or minus 3 per cent for such surveys and the results are subject to statistical rounding.
The cost of having questions asked as part of omnibus surveys can run from hundreds of euros to the low thousands.
Mr O’Neill declined to confirm the sum spent on the questions on the presidency, saying it is “commercially sensitive information”.
He said paying for questions as part of an omnibus survey is a “low-cost way of doing market research”.
