So what’s going on in Fianna Fáil when it comes to the presidency? Is the party going to have a candidate, or not? When will it decide? And who might it be?
Taoiseach and party leader Micheál Martin has been studiously ambiguous for months on the subject. The only thing he has been clear about – as he confirmed again this week – is that he will not be a candidate. Other than that, there’s been a lot more questions than answers.
Meanwhile, there has been an avalanche of speculation about potential candidates. It started with former taoiseach Bertie Ahern. The former minister Mary Hanafin is openly seeking the nomination, while Donegal TD Pat the Cope Gallagher has also been mentioned, as has – just this week – Eamon Ó Cuiv, the former minister and grandson of the party’s founder (and former president) Éamon de Valera. None have received much enthusiasm from either the party’s TDs or the wider organisation.
Will Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin abstain from the presidential race?
Elsewhere, the name of the Northern academic Prof Deirdre Heenan has been floated – reported this week as a “front-runner” – as has the former leader of the SDLP, Colum Eastwood. More exotically, the former Ireland footballers Niall Quinn and Packie Bonner have been mentioned. Joe Duffy has ruled himself out. Michael Flatley has very much not – his lawyer told the judge in a long-running court case involving the former dancer that he intends to make a bid for the presidency.
RM Block
Pick your own name and throw it into the mix; sure, everyone else is doing it. The lack of any direction from the party leadership has led to a sort of open season for anyone to propose themselves or someone else. Some of these are credible possibilities; many are not.
So what’s happening? After several in-depth conversations with a series of senior party figures, all conducted on the condition that they would remain anonymous, it’s possible to say three things with confidence about Fianna Fáil and the presidency.
Fianna Fáil will probably – but not certainly – run a candidate
The idea that the party has to run a candidate, especially if Sinn Féin runs its candidate, is one that is forcefully rejected by all sources. Fianna Fáil will make its own decision on its candidate, without reference to the existing or likely field. The question will be whether it has a viable contender that it can get behind, not a certain winner but a real contender, not what other parties are doing. The example of Gay Mitchell, who, despite being the representative of a then-dominant Fine Gael, bombed in the 2011 election, is much cited. Sources agree that the party would like to run a candidate, but would prefer not to run a candidate than run a poor candidate.
The decision will not be finally made until September and the principal decision-maker will be Martin
The Taoiseach has said he will consult the parliamentary party, but nobody is under any illusion about who gets the final say. His dominance of the party is such that any decision he makes – including not to run a candidate, a possibility which sources say he is quite comfortable with – will be accepted, even though some grumbling is inevitable, whatever happens. He may well spend time during August pondering the question, but not all of it.
The eventual candidate, if there is one, is very unlikely to be any of the names floated so far
Despite the claims made for some of the potential candidates, sources say with certainty that none of them has captured Martin’s imagination. And several of them are not taken seriously at all. Martin retains, it is said, an open mind but it is felt unlikely that a current or even retired politician will be selected. The “help wanted” sign is still on his door.
