The political system will pull itself out of its midwinter slumber on Monday when government-formation talks reconvene for what one senior negotiator said will be a “crucial week”.
The talks have been a cloistered and low-octane affair so far with little leaking out of the substance of negotiations. Nonetheless they have assumed prime importance for the subset of politicians working on them. “It’s your moment of influence over the Civil Service,” one negotiator said last week.
Before Christmas (and in papers exchanged last week) negotiating teams from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the two parties in pole position to form a coalition (again) following the November 29th general election, have been working through policy areas in smaller teams.
Figures involved said that there are agreed texts, which have gone to a plenary session of the negotiators, across about eight departmental areas, including agriculture, rural affairs, defence, foreign affairs, and tourism, culture and arts.
Almost 60,000 without power as Met Éireann warns cold spell will continue until Friday
‘My friend was sleeping with another friend’s boyfriend and refuses to take responsibility’
‘I actually felt unsafe as an English person in the Aviva’
I loved Alice Munro but recent revelations have tainted her legacy forever
However, much of what has been agreed (although not yet signed off between the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil leaders) is seen as low-hanging fruit, with trickier items to come next week. This will include climate and transport, according to one source.
Health and disability – the latter having been a key battleground in the run-up to the general election – will also be discussed next week, as will competing visions for issues such as child benefit and the future of the Department of Justice portfolio.
Justice was a conflict zone between the two larger parties during the election. Both seemingly agree immigration should be taken out of the Department of Children. It remains to be seen if a new stand-alone domestic affairs department operating under the Minister for Justice, as sought by Fianna Fáil in its manifesto, will be the way forward, with misgivings in Fine Gael over the reorganisation this might entail.
As talks progress this week it is expected that secretaries general from the relevant departments as well as outside experts will be drafted in to help shape the deal in this and other areas.
A more detailed allocation of the €14 billion windfall from US tech giant Apple following the EU tax ruling is on the cards, with a desire to avoid another Dáil term packed with notional bids from across the political system.
Policy papers have been exchanged on housing and progress made, but it has not yet been signed off at a plenary session. With targets agreed before the election this most vital policy area is not seen as likely to cause much in the way of disagreement.
Nonetheless there is detail to get through here for the new government even if it may not form part of the programme for government talks proper. The pre-election targets need to be further subdivided into social and affordable targets, and it is likely that funding allocations will have to be made against these targets. Sources involved say that this could see increases in spending within the Department of Housing.
“Particularly on the housing issue, it will need more money and I don’t think it can wait for the next budget for that money to flow,” said one senior figure involved.
There may also be a requirement for extra money to go into homelessness services.
Fine Gael is also targeting some form of stimulus for small businesses, a key constituency for the party, although there is an acknowledgment this may be a “tricky” negotiation.
Both these moves could be unlocked thanks to wiggle room given to incoming governments under fiscal plans which the last coalition had to submit to the EU but which can be reopened by an incoming administration.
Another potential window for this is in the Summer Economic Statement, although senior sources stressed no decisions have been taken on extra allocations and they are not part of the talks themselves.
All parties have agreed that any intervention will not be labelled a “mini budget”, and further cost-of-living measures for households are not under consideration, but sources acknowledge that opening the door to extra spending may lead to demands from new Ministers.
Some decisions on housing and other matters may be kicked into the budgetary cycle, with high level commitments made in the programme for government and fine tuning left for another day.
The expectation is that Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris will meet early next week to bottom out some issues identified already before getting into “meatier, chunkier disputes”. The issue of VAT for businesses – the subject of competing election trail promises – will have to be thrashed out and has not yet been considered.
Several people involved in talks said the goal is to have a new Taoiseach elected when the Dáil meets again on January 22nd, but any programme for government must be approved by the wider memberships of the two large parties, which may stall progress.
The other known unknown is the “third leg” of the government. The widespread expectation is that this will come from the Regional Independent Group, with the Social Democrats due to meet early next week with an eye to making decisions on their next move.
Independent sources said they had shared policy papers over Christmas, though this is not a view shared by senior figures in Fine Gael, who say it is still unclear how the Independents will engage. Whether they do so formally as a collective or individually will determine much, as will the level of input they want to the drafting – or will they simply seek amendments afterwards. One Independent source outlined that their side is ready to go and can, they believe, move swiftly if needed.
The question of jobs also hangs over the enterprise as well – the assumption had been that one Cabinet level post would be made available, but it is understood no specific ask for such a role has been received from any Independent, and there is a school of thought that a super junior minister (who attends Cabinet) alongside some Minister of State roles may be a sufficient concession, enabling a division of full Cabinet roles between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael alone.
At some point the final act of political deal-making will take place between Harris and Martin. This will involve “some late-night dramatic engagement”, said one senior source, where concessions and compromises will be made.
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Join The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
- Listen to our Inside Politics podcast for the best political chat and analysis
