“Buckle up,” says one experienced US diplomat.
Within days, the world will begin to see whether Donald Trump is serious about doing everything he has promised and whether he will follow his words with actions.
Former Irish ambassador to the United States Anne Anderson served in Washington during Barack Obama’s second term and for the first months of Trump’s first term. The challenges she faced, while not inconsiderable, were of a very different nature to the ones now facing Irish diplomats.
“There will be times when courage is required, and we need to stiffen our backbone for those times,” she says.
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“The landscape of Irish-US relations over the next four years has become something of a minefield, with potential for blow-ups on a range of fronts”.
And there are many fronts.
Trump is not the first US president to talk about bringing American companies and their taxes back home from abroad; indeed he said he would do it the first time around. Now, as he is about to head into the White House for a second time, he appears more strident on this point than before — and has nominated staff accordingly.
Ireland’s pharmaceutical sector could be particularly vulnerable.
Trump would appear ready to deploy tariffs against friend and foe alike — raising the prospect of a trade war with the European Union — unless it starts purchasing more American oil and gas.
And he aims to deport millions of undocumented migrants.
Trump’s former White House director of communications Sean Spicer says Irish diplomats may be in for a shock, however. Many Trump loyalists have felt neglected since 2021, he says
“The overall challenge is how to engage with Trump’s transactional approach without compromising the fundamental values and interests of our foreign policy,” says Anderson of the Irish strategy.
“Respectful exchanges but no toadying … we need to use every tool of engagement and communication. There may well be possibilities to trim and adjust. But we absolutely can’t go quiet on our core values.”
Trump’s former White House director of communications Sean Spicer says Irish diplomats may be in for a shock, however. Many Trump loyalists have felt neglected since 2021, he says.
“I think the Irish delegation in the US has some work to make up; they shunned Trump people over the past four years — they made a big mistake betting the whole lot on the Biden administration,” he says.
“I have been in DC for 30 years — good diplomats build connections across both parties — Dan Mulhall was an excellent ambassador,” says Spicer of the envoy who represented Ireland in Washington DC from 2017 to 2022, covering most of Trump’s first term.
“I have maintained relationships with many different countries; a lot of delegations kept those relationships open. The people from Ireland haven’t done a good job — and I think they’ll pay the price for it. If it were not for St Patrick’s Day, Ireland wouldn’t get the time of day. Those people of Irish descent who were shunned for the past four years aren’t going to lift a finger for Ireland,” says Spicer.
“I couldn’t even tell you who the ambassador is and I’m not alone in it.”
Observers in Washington DC question Spicer’s comments.
Kevin O’Malley was US ambassador to Ireland under then president Obama. He finds Spicer’s depiction of neglect hard to believe
Trump’s former senior counsellor Kellyanne Conway was a guest at the Irish ambassador’s Christmas dinner, along with people from both sides of the US political divide.
Conway appeared in a photograph beside Irish ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason that was posted on the Ambassador’s official X account.
Kevin O’Malley was US ambassador to Ireland under then president Obama. He finds Spicer’s depiction of neglect hard to believe.
“Sometimes people get their feelings hurt if they’re not invited to a particular event, this ambassador was very careful about including people,” he says.
“She is a consummate professional — I have been at functions where there were both Democrats and Republicans — and I think the ambassador represents the skill the Irish government has always exercised in the US. It would be hard for me to think anyone had been neglected intentionally or unintentionally.”
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A spokesperson for the Department of Foreign Affairs, responding to Spicer’s comments, said: “A core part of the role of our embassy in Washington and our consulates general across the US is to develop relationships with a wide range of political contacts from both sides of the aisle, on an ongoing basis, at state and federal level. Naturally, this includes many individuals who will be part of the incoming Trump administration.”
The need for Ireland to maintain close ties to the US has never seemed more important.
A narrative has grown around the notion that Europe has become over-regulated and increasingly uncompetitive. Contrast this with the stock market bounce on Wall Street that accompanied the Trump victory; traders believe the new president will drive a pro-growth agenda — and slash away at red tape.
As Washington seemingly prepares for an economic boost — the two traditional European powerhouses, Germany and France are floundering both politically and economically.
In the middle is Ireland.
O’Malley believes Ireland should leverage Irish economic investment into the US to win over Trump
Nerves in Government Buildings and the Department of Finance have been frayed by some of the comments made by Trump’s nominees.
His pick for commerce secretary Howard Lutnick has singled out Ireland — writing on social media that it was “nonsense that Ireland of all places runs a trade surplus at our expense”.
O’Malley believes Ireland should leverage Irish economic investment into the US to win over Trump.
“Ireland is currently the seventh largest contributor to investment in the US. For a country the size of Ireland to be in that position is something that can’t be ignored — and won’t be ignored by the Trump administration. That’s a huge fact that shouldn’t be lost on anyone running the US government and I don’t think it will be”.
The Irish outreach to Republicans has been a constant process, insiders say. They reject the perception that Ireland may be more naturally inclined to talk to Democrats.
As O’Malley suggests, economic ties have been exploited at a State level, using Irish investments in parts of the US as a way of establishing and maintaining relationships with people on both sides of the aisle.
But even now, with the presidential inauguration just days away, hitting upon a reliable strategy of influence remains a huge guessing game.
For example, the appointment of Edward Walsh as ambassador to Ireland has led to much head-scratching in Dublin. The New Jersey-based construction magnate, lauded by Mr Trump as a “champion golfer”, is a relative unknown in diplomatic terms.
The effort to influence the policies of this new administration will again partly concentrate on finding an Irish connection within the upper echelons of the Trump organisation.
“I suspect they will have doors opening,” says former Labour Party minister for foreign affairs Eamon Gilmore of the Irish Embassy. “They will have put in place lots of channels to him through the diaspora. Diplomacy is competitive — every leader in the world wants to talk to Trump and get someone in his administration who is close to him. If we use the old Green Card — ‘where did your family come from? have you been to Ireland’? It may be cheesy, but it works.”
Following the money is another tactic being used to identify points of influence
There will be an Irish presence on Team Trump.
Dublin lawyer Gail Slater will head the antitrust division at the US Department of Justice. She will take on monopoly cases against Apple and Google — two big employers in Ireland — who also account for a large part of the corporation tax take.
Anne Anderson believes there will be Irish “assets” within the new administration.
“Trump does have a degree of personal affection for Ireland,” she says. “And given our careful cultivation of bipartisan networks over the years, there will undoubtedly be people in his circle who are prepared to engage in advocacy on our behalf.”
Following the money is another tactic being used to identify points of influence.
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When it was deeply unfashionable to openly support a Trump win; he was garnering support from the so-called “tech bros”. They are identified as individuals who might have his ear — given that he likes to reward loyalty.
The biggest names in the technology industry have also since lined up to support him.
Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and OpenAI’s Sam Altman have very publicly thrown money into his inaugural fund, which will pay for his swearing-in on Monday, January 20th and the big parties and dinners that will come with it.
And Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of social media network X (formerly Twitter) looms over everything. He backed Trump to the hilt — and has been given the job of cutting $2 trillion from federal government spending.
He has raged against European efforts to rein in social media and artificial intelligence — and his X platform has taken Coimisiún na Meán to the High Court in Dublin.
The commission, along with the Data Protection Commission, is uniquely placed to further annoy the world’s richest man. Clashes over the regulation of his and other tech companies headquartered in Dublin run the risk of quickly becoming politicised.
The workload for diplomats has increased over recent weeks; the heightening of tensions between Dublin and Israel being a case in point.
The difficulties endured by Web Summit founder Paddy Cosgrave, who stepped back from the business in 2023 after making critical remarks about the Israeli military action in Gaza have, however, not gone unnoticed
Not only does Ireland have to contend with the prospect of tariffs and tax reform — it must make a pitch for further inward investment from a sector where the geopolitics is increasingly fraught.
“There are now a huge number of Israeli VCs [venture capitalists] in the tech sector,” says one tech observer. “They carry huge influence here and many are supportive of the Israeli position. Though, at the same time, there are other Israelis who have equally called for a ceasefire and have been critical of Israel”.
The difficulties endured by Web Summit founder Paddy Cosgrave, who stepped back from the business in 2023 after making critical remarks about the Israeli military action in Gaza have, however, not gone unnoticed.
Technology financier and Limerick native John Hartnett has made a successful career investing in Silicon Valley. Based in Los Altos, California he worries about how Irish foreign policy may be impacting on Irish investment prospects.
“It feels uncomfortable [the tensions with Israel]. Have we pushed the boat out too much?” he asks.
“If you look at Israel, there are more Nasdaq quoted companies out of Israel than all of Europe.
“Being neutral is also kind of taking a stance — but the view from Silicon Valley is that we are getting pretty bold taking sides [in the Middle East].”
The annual St Patrick’s week of activities in Washington will test the mettle of Ireland’s approach to Trump.
Spicer has a warning for the next Taoiseach who attends the White House.
“I think when Leo [Varadkar] was Taoiseach he wanted to use the Patrick’s Day events to address gay issues, trans issues; I think that was a mistake. Irish leaders punch well above their weight, but that could sour quickly if they use that access to promote social issues,” he said.
While St Patrick’s Day is the most important part of the calendar for US-Irish relations — the requirement to maintain lines of communication with Trump’s people and investors will be constant
And when it comes to the Middle East he says: “Ireland shouldn’t be fighting other people’s battles. If you want to lecture the US on issues that don’t directly affect Ireland, that would be a huge mistake”.
John Hartnett believes the big guns of Irish business need to be involved this March.
“Michael O’Leary is somebody I think Donald Trump would be in awe of,” he says.
“He is inspired by bold leaders — like Elon Musk. Ryanair is one of the biggest customers of Boeing. That is a major investment and a big dollar number that needs to be put out there. I don’t think Trump is going to be bowled over by politicians; he will be bowled over by business leaders.
“We could have 12 to 20 CEOs [chief executives] sitting around the table on St Patrick’s Day and it could be a massive deal”.
He notes big Irish employers in the United States like CRH, Kerry and Kingspan as examples of companies which could be encouraged to pull on the green jersey. That, he says, and Trump’s links to Co Clare through his family’s golf resort at Doonbeg, need to be exploited.
“The soft power lies in the fact that the guy comes to Ireland and his family comes to Ireland every year and they go down to Doonbeg. We have the biggest golfing event in the world [Ryder Cup] coming to Limerick in 2027. If I was [Limerick Mayor] John Moran, I’d get on the next flight and give Trump an invite — or get JP [McManus, owner of Ryder Cup host resort Adare Manor] to do it”.
While St Patrick’s Day is the most important part of the calendar for US-Irish relations — the requirement to maintain lines of communication with Trump’s people and investors will be constant.
“What should be happening are serious discussions with corporate America and companies that have invested here. They are not just looking at the next election, they are looking at returns over decades,” says Gilmore. “The people who make the decisions about investments aren’t the politicians, it is those in the board rooms”.
Hartnett agrees.
“It’s not all doom and gloom; we have a lot of assets. The window of opportunity is open now”.
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