In the final hours of 2023, the Shipwright Pub in Ringsend, Dublin, went up in flames, the result of an arson attack following false rumours it was going to be used to house asylum seekers.
It proved to be a grim omen for the months ahead, during which far-right violence continued to grow and evolve, often leaving gardaí struggling to respond. Misinformation campaigns targeting asylum seekers and members of the LGBTQ community continued and various new political parties emerged hoping to capitalise on growing anti-immigrant feeling.
All of this took place against a backdrop of record numbers of asylum seekers entering the country, often without official documentation, which stretched immigration services to their limit and forced the Government to hastily set up accommodation centres in often unsuitable areas, with little to no local consultation.
However, despite these trends and the increasing centrality of immigration to Irish life, the far-right failed to make an electoral breakthrough. Unlike in various European Union countries where far-right politicians have entered parliaments and sometimes governments, Irish extremists remain on the outside looking in, politically speaking at least.
That would perhaps not have been a common predication back at the start of the year. In the first few months of 2024 the headlines were dominated by arson attacks against locations which were rumoured, often falsely, as intended for use as asylum seeker accommodation.
In February, an attack which gutted a seven-bedroom house in Leixlip, Co Kildare, brought the number of incidents to 23 since 2018, including 12 in the previous year with most of those occurring in the previous three months.
The Garda appeared to be unable to get a handle on the issue and could find few similarities in the various cases. Officers insisted the attacks were the work of separate individuals and there was no organised campaign. However, Tánaiste Micheál Martin said there was “clearly an organised campaign” of arson taking place.
Meanwhile, though there was widespread condemnation of the attacks, anti-immigration – or at least immigration sceptical – sentiments were continuing to take hold among the general public.
In February, a Sunday Independent poll found more than a third of people would consider supporting a party or candidate with strong anti-immigrant views, while an Irish Times poll found almost 60 per cent preferred a “more closed policy” on immigration.
By May, according to one poll, 41 per cent of voters said they believed immigration was the most important issue in the country and 82 per cent were in favour of a “Rwanda type” policy which would see asylum seekers kept in a third country while their claim was being assessed.
In the run-up to the family and care referendums, which proposed among other things to remove from the Constitution a reference to a mother’s place being in the home, some elements of the far-right, encouraged by the likes of Conor McGregor and X owner Elon Musk, attempted to turn the vote into a culture war issue.
A large amount of misinformation was circulated claiming the vote would diminish the role of women in society. It was also claimed the proposal to extend the meaning of family to include those in “durable” relationships would provide for “polygamous” relationships.
When the proposals were unanimously defeated in March, the far right treated it as a victory. However, this was overly simplistic. The Constitutional amendments were opposed by large swathes of people across the political spectrum and for various reasons, including that they did not go far enough.
[ As it happened: Ireland votes No on family and care referendumsOpens in new window ]
The true test for anti-immigration campaigners were the local and European elections in June, in which record numbers of far-right parties and individuals registered to run. New parties, such as The Irish People and Ireland First, were formed which focused on curtailing immigration or stopping it altogether.
These groups had some reason to expect to return a significant number of local councillors and perhaps even a seat in Europe. Some opinion polls predicted far-right parties could take up to 25 per cent of the seats in the European Parliament due to growing anger at EU immigration policies.
In Ireland, an Irish Times/Ipsos B&A Snapshot poll taken immediately before the election showed immigration was foremost on voters’ minds, well ahead of housing and health.
But as the votes were counted it became apparent there would be no far-right breakthrough, though five explicitly right-wing candidates were returned to local councils, including one from the National Party which has long sat on the most extreme end of the political spectrum.
While there was no breakthrough, it marked a new departure for Irish electoral politics. In previous elections such candidates were usually lucky to garner a few hundred votes. The far-right had arrived as a political force, albeit a small one. As asylum seeker arrivals continued to break records, many expected these groups to build on their successes in the upcoming general election.
Afterwards, the focus again returned to the streets, specifically the streets of Coolock where a long running protest outside the former Crown Paints factory boiled over into violence.
Over a couple of days in July, protesters objecting to the factory being converted to emergency asylum seeker accommodation clashed with the Garda Public Order Unit in scenes reminiscent of last year’s Dublin riots. Various prominent far-right activists attended the site of the protests in Coolock, but most beat a retreat when the violence started.
Gardaí were heavily criticised for withdrawing officers immediately before the violence began. But they later responded in force, deploying pepper spray and other robust tactics. It was a sign of a new, tougher approach by gardaí which focused on arresting ringleaders and using lines of heavily armoured riot officers to clear trouble spots.
The Government insisted that despite the violence, the accommodation centre would open as planned. However, to date, no one has moved in.
Far-right actors claimed another victory in September when the Government announced it was watering down its controversial Hate Crime Bill. The bill would still mandate tougher sentences for crimes motivated by racism or bigotry but it would not include references to incitement to violence or hatred.
Like the family and care referendums, the campaign against the bill had received support from prominent international figures such as Donald Trump jnr and Musk.
But, also like the family and care referendums, its defeat was not just the work of the far-right. Disquiet about the bill had been growing for months, including from Government backbench TDs and even People Before Profit. For many, the problem was not with the law’s intention, it was with its vague definitions of what constitutes hate speech.
In the run-up to the November general election, some far-right parties and independents sought to form a pact to avoid the vote splitting that had diluted some of their campaigns in the local elections. Calling itself the National Alliance, this group comprised 32 candidates from the National Party, The Irish People, Ireland First and several independents.
However, crucially, it did not include members of the Irish Freedom Party or several of the most prominent far-right campaigners – including Gavin Pepper and Malachy Steenson, who had both already won seats as independents on Dublin City Council.
This meant when the election took place, vote splitting still occurred in some areas. No explicitly far-right candidates won election, including some such as Pepper who were widely tipped to take a seat.
Candidates found that their large social media followings failed to turn into votes. For example, Derek Blighe of Ireland First received 4 per cent in Cork North-Central, while Stephen Kerr got 5 per cent in Mayo.
The biggest factor in this was not vote splitting though, it was the fact that by November, much of the heat had gone out of the immigration issue. In contrast to polls from earlier in the year, just six per cent of people surveyed on election day cited immigration as the most pressing issue. Asylum seeker numbers were also dropping fast. In November, 896 people sought asylum, down from 1,736 in July.
However, the far-right could take some consolation from the election of several other candidates who could be reasonably described as sceptical about the State’s immigration policies. Mattie McGrath and Verona Murphy, who have previously made controversial statements on immigration, easily retained their seats (with Murphy being elected Ceann Comhairle in December).
They could also argue that the threat of a far-right breakthrough forced the Government to introduce tougher immigration measures, including fast-tracking decisions on applicants from an increasing number of “safe countries” and reducing payments to Ukrainian refugees.
However, there was still widespread dismay and recrimination within far-right circles following their dismal general election showing. A review of their Telegram groups and voice chats on X showed many questioning the point of pursing electoral politics.
“This was the best chance in years, by f**king far and we f**ked it away,” said one far-right activist in a virtual meet-up. “We’re not going to fix this country by voting.”
