The Politics Fix

The ‘will they, won’t they’ of government formation is like our very own Christmas rom-com

Your essential end-of-week politics catch up: Outside of coalition talks, other big story of the week was undoubtedly Eoin Hayes’s suspension from Social Democrats

The Politics Fix
Labour leader Ivana Bacik: Labour would not have enough leverage within the next government to effect the kind of change it can stand over.
Jennifer Bray's picture
Jennifer Bray
Fri Dec 13 2024 - 14:48

Story of the Week

It’s like our very own Christmas rom-com, as the ‘will they, won’t they’ storyline continued to play out in government formation talks throughout the week. As Independent TDs kept their counsel, the focus remained on the Labour Party and the Social Democrats as negotiators tried to figure out if either party was actually serious about the prospect of going into government. While the Social Democrats opted to remain in the field for another while, the mood music from within Labour indicated that there was still huge reluctance at the idea of going into coalition with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, spelling an end to substantive coalition talks. The feeling within Labour is that the party is on a trajectory of growth which would be seriously damaged by entering government. There is also anxiety that actually, when the numbers are crunched, Labour would not have enough leverage within the next government to effect the kind of change it can stand over. And so, government formation talks rumble into another week, with more focused talks expected in the coming days between those Independent TDs and the Social Democrats.

Bust up

The other story of the week was undoubtedly the suspension from the Social Democrats of Dublin Bay South TD Eoin Hayes after he gave incorrect information about the sale of shares from a firm linked to the Israeli military. Mr Hayes admitted on Tuesday that he divested his shares in the company in July this year, a month after being elected to be a member of Dublin City Council. He had previously said – on multiple occasions – that he had sold the shares before becoming a public representative. Party sources this week told The Irish Times that he is unlikely to be allowed to rejoin the Soc Dems because of the serious nature of the manner in which he had misled his colleagues. Many of them were understood to be blindsided when they learned the actual date of his divestment.

Banana skin

In its latest quarterly bulletin, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) warned that the acceleration in house prices this year had led to concerns about the sustainability of such increases and whether it would lead to “a painful correction” similar to the one that followed the 2008 financial crisis. The think-tank noted that average loan to income ratios had risen sharply in recent years, having been stable for over a decade. “What that means is that these households are potentially more susceptible to financial or employment shocks,” the ESRI’s Kieran McQuinn said. Furthermore, because of a marked slowdown in construction in the first two quarters of this year, the ESRI also said that new home completions would be roughly the same as last year at in or around 33,000. After promising that a corner had been turned on housing, the new government could face a credibility problem before its even formed.

Winners and losers

On the winners side, it was good news for mortgage holders this week after the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its fourth interest rate cut in a move expected to boost the mortgage market. On the losers side, while Dublin Bay South TD Eoin Hayes has promised to sit as an Independent TD when the Dáil convenes, there can be no doubt that the saga has damaged his former party. Deputy leader Cian O’Callaghan publicly backed him numerous times, before the party learned the full facts. And then there was Dublin Central TD Gary Gannon, who, on a podcast, claimed that some journalists who asked questions about Hayes’s shares were only doing so because they were interested in government special adviser jobs: “There are special adviser jobs coming up and this is how you flash your eyelids at them.” On Wednesday, Gannon said he wished to retract what he had said. “It was a poor comment for me to make and I apologise to journalists for having said it.”

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The Big Read

This week, former taoiseach Leo Varadkar said that many people would be amazed at the number of those involved in policymaking who do not understand things like percentages. Jack Horgan Jones has a long read on the rollercoaster (or more accurately, slow conveyor belt) of government formation talks while on Saturday Harry McGee takes a look at some of his claims.

Hear here

British journalist Lewis Goodall is co-host of the UK’s most popular news podcast, The News Agents. He spoke to Hugh Linehan about the year in UK politics: why Keir Starmer has struggled to get a grip on governing, the lingering impact of Brexit, and how Labour’s numerical victory has hidden the fragmentation of political support across the spectrum. He also discussed how the Irish general election looks from his point of view and wonders how history will look back on this period in UK and Irish politics.

Lewis Goodall: why Keir Starmer has struggled - and how the UK sees Irish politics

Listen | 36:24