Fine Gael received 1.8 percentage points more support than Sinn Féin in the general election, yet finished with one seat fewer than its rival.
It also finished with only 1 percentage point fewer first preference votes than Fianna Fáil, yet its Coalition partner ended up with 10 more seats, 48 to Fine Gael’s 38.
How did that happen? Analysis conducted by The Irish Times of transfers in all 43 constituencies showed that the informal transfer pact between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael resulted in strong transfers between both parties, giving each additional seats in their main target constituencies.
Yet Fianna Fáil benefited more because of better name recognition for its candidates, who tended to finish ahead of Fine Gael rivals. It was also more transfer-friendly than Fine Gael in rural Ireland (but not in Dublin), especially from Sinn Féin.
Another big success story of the election was the gains made by the Social Democrats and the Labour Party. The SocDems in particular were the equivalent of a political sponge for transfers. Sinn Féin voters, as always, showed teak-tough discipline in its transfers and largely followed the instructions of the leadership to transfer Sinn Féin first, and then to the SocDems and People Before Profit.
The voting patterns in three key constituencies tell the story of why some parties exceeded expectations and why others fell short of meeting their targets.
Dublin South Central
This four-seater left-leaning constituency was targeted for a gain by four parties: Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Social Democrats. Three of the seats being held by parties or individuals were vulnerable: the Greens; People Before Profit; and the one held by Joan Collins.
The eight top candidates in a large field finished within 1,500 voters of each other. Transfers would be crucial.
- Centre-left transfer: The first big elimination was Patrick Costello of the Greens on 2,372 votes. The bulk of his transfers were split almost half-and-half between the other two centre-left parties: Darragh Moriarty of Labour (786) and Jen Cummins (Social Democrats).
- Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael transfers: When Fine Gael’s Mary Seery-Kearney was eliminated, it showed the Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil pact in action. A total of 2,146 of her 3,451 voters went to Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fáil, making her election a near certainty. In the previous two elections, Ardagh had struggled to get transfers and had failed to get elected.
- Sinn Féin’s iron discipline: Its third candidate Daithí Doolan was eliminated. Four-fifths of his 3,649 votes went to his running mates, Aengus Ó Snodaigh and Máire Devine. Both were then close to election.
- Centre-left transfers again: Moriarty of Labour was eliminated and almost half (1,916) of his transfers went to Cummins of the Soc Dems. Critically, it put her ahead of Hazel de Nortúin of the left-wing People Before Profit, who never recovered.
Elected: SF (2); FF (1); SD (1).
Donegal
This five-seater was targeted as a gain by Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and the 100% Redress Party (Mica). Fine Gael’s, and Thomas Pringle’s, seats looked vulnerable.
- Sinn Féin discipline: Pearse Doherty won 18,898 votes and had a surplus of 6,100 votes. 4,300 of them went to his two Sinn Féin running mates, Pádraig Mac Lochlainn and Noel Jordan.
- Candidate recognition and geographical factors: Veteran Fianna Fáil politician Pat the Cope Gallagher received 480 of Doherty’s surplus on the back of his name recognition, and because his base was in the same west Donegal Gaeltacht as Doherty’s. Very few other “outside” politicians received such largesse from Sinn Féin.
- Fine Gael to Fianna Fáil: When John McNulty was eliminated he transferred 1,721 of his votes (roughly half) to running mate Nikki Bradley but a significant 715 to the two Fianna Fáil candidates, Gallagher and Charlie McConalogue. Thomas Pringle, who is based close to McNulty in southwest Donegal received a respectable 571.
- Sinn Féin to other candidates: The two other Sinn Féin candidates were already elected so Jordan’s transfers went to other parties. More than 2,000 went to Pringle and close to 1,000 went to Charles Ward of 100% Redress. Significantly, more than 700 went to the two Fianna Fáil candidates, giving them an edge over Fine Gael’s Bradley, who received only 175.
- Fine Gael’s elimination guaranteed two seats for Fianna Fáil. Bradley transferred almost 2,000 of her 6,176 votes to McConalogue and a further 1,300 to Gallagher. In contrast, Pringle received only 700, leaving him unable to catch up with Gallagher, McConalogue or Ward.
Dublin Rathdown
A four-seater increasing from three seats. Fine Gael was defending two seats, with the Green seat of Catherine Martin in danger. A target for Fianna Fáil, the Social Democrats and Independent candidates.
- People Before Profit elimination: Showed how transfer-friendly the Social Democrats were. Sinéad Gibney received 643 of Síomha Ní Aonghusa’s 1,351 votes, with Sinn Féin’s Shaun Tracey receiving 306.
- Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael axis: More than half (830) of the 1,443 votes of Elaine Dunne’s (FF) went to running mate Shay Brennan but 238 went to Fine Gael’s Maeve O’Connell.
- Soft-left transfer: When Lettie McCarthy of Labour was eliminated, more than 1,000 of her 3,458 votes went to Gibney (SD) with Catherine Martin (GP) receiving 908. Typical of Dublin middle-class constituencies, Fine Gael received a respectable 508.
- Sinn Féin to others: Another example of Sinn Féin discipline and how transfer-friendly the Soc Dems were. Gibney received 1,881 transfers of Tracey’s 4,382 votes.
- Soft-left transfer: When the Green’s Martin was eliminated she transferred 2,558 votes to Gibney. Most of the rest went to her erstwhile Coalition partners: 1,534 to Fine Gael and 903 to Fianna Fáil. It ensured the election of all three ahead of the Independent candidate, Michael Fleming.
- Social Democrat ability to attract transfers: Gibney had 4,277 first preferences but received an incredible 6,500 transfers over the course of 10 counts.
