With the Greens drummed out of office, answering the critical question of how the new government addresses a worsening climate crisis – that failed to ignite as an election issue – hinges on political combinations.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael favour a third party as coalition partner rather than Independents, with a preference for Labour. The Social Democrats forced their way into the picture with a strong showing.
The two smaller, left-leaning parties were adjudged to have the best climate policies (even ahead of the Greens) in independent analysis commissioned by Friends of the Earth. That might provide assurance on necessary climate ambition within the next government should they be involved, but neither seems keen – and certainly not if either of the two stays out. The next obvious option is Independents.
Dr Tara Shine, chief executive of sustainability consultants ChangeByDegrees, says it is “a shame the Greens got burned” and blamed for the cost of living which had nothing to do with green/climate policy.
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The Labour and Soc Dems combination could ensure strong accountability, she says, as good as the Greens or even better, especially on building understanding that “housing justice and climate justice are part of the same thing”.
Going with Independents will slow the response, although legal commitments and compliance with EU regulations still apply, Shine says. Delays will lead to frustration, escalating costs (and fines) and “unhelpful signals to markets”.
Current targets are off-course and may worsen, though last year Ireland lowered its emissions significantly
“It won’t be easy. It won’t change the [overall] direction of travel… but slowing down will be bad for Ireland,” she warns, and make it harder for businesses already going in the right direction.
Climate policy specialist Sadhbh O’Neill, who failed to win a Labour seat in Waterford, says “it feels like the election took place inside a bubble of denial and delay”. She is fearful of how parties will tackle more challenging topics like data centres, high electricity costs and sustainable land use, “because if the next government doesn’t act we’re all in big, big trouble”.
From a climate policy perspective, the likely combination will be “disastrous”. It’s not that everything will backslide, she says, but what’s already backsliding – on agriculture, land use and forestry – will continue.
The Climate Act mandates governments to reduce carbon emissions, while they must comply with carbon budgets and meet Paris Agreement obligations. Even if it wants to shun more radical or penal actions, the climate to-do list is substantial. The new coalition has to agree a 2025 climate action plan, to adjust measures where sectoral emission ceilings are being exceeded and set a 2026-2030 carbon budget. It must scale up ambition in advance of the UN Cop30 summit – not just on slashing emissions but setting out how they can be achieved.
O’Neill says current targets are off-course and may worsen, though last year Ireland lowered its emissions significantly. Even if the Greens were in government, it’s questionable if they could persuade senior partners to bridge the gap with unpopular measures. Sitting on hands will be evident which will please the aviation sector and data centres, she predicts.
The State must lead transformation of our energy, transport, housing and food systems “to make zero-pollution options accessible, affordable and appealing for all in a way that reduces poverty and inequality”, says Friends of the Earth chief executive Oisín Coghlan. Judging by their manifestos, Labour, the Soc Dems, the Greens, People Before Profit and Sinn Féin share that analysis, and so can be an effective opposition in “holding [government] feet to the fire”.
“It’s crucial to present climate action as a way to improve the quality of life for everyone now, not just for those who can afford electric cars or expensive retrofits. And not just to safeguard our children’s future, fundamental as that is,” he says.
He doesn’t see the election outcome as a vote against climate action, citing a striking finding in the exit poll; 51 per cent of voters thought the outgoing government “has not gone far enough to address climate change”, compared to 20 per cent who thought they had gone too far.
Crucially, 47 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters and 44 per cent of Fine Gael voters thought the Government they led had not gone far enough. Only 14 per cent of them thought it went too far, compared to 46 per cent of Independent Ireland voters. “Anti-Green sentiment inside Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil may be the squeaky wheel, but it doesn’t represent what those parties’ voters think about climate action.”
So what of the Independents? Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan observed some “define themselves by their opposition to the green transition”. Others acknowledge climate disruption to farming yet reject the science or need for corrective action. Meanwhile, the crisis gets worse with more extreme impacts inevitable in an unprepared Ireland.
An election campaign where the main parties wanted to downplay climate issues, with manifestos lacking focus on hard choices, does not bode well for ambitious climate policies in the next programme for government.
It will require an exceptional climate minister with relentless focus and understanding of energy dynamics and climate science to overcome that mindset and to counter the backsliders.
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