Amid signs of wariness in both Labour and the Social Democrats about joining a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition, newly elected Independent TDs have been declaring their willingness to support a new government.
As counts continued last night, Fianna Fáil is certain to be the largest party in the new Dáil, with its seat numbers expected to be in the mid- to high-40s. Fianna Fáil also won the largest share of votes, with 21.9 per cent of the total.
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With Fine Gael expected to win a slightly lower number of seats – likely to be in the late 30s, or perhaps reaching 40 – a coalition of the big two parties is now seen by most politicians as inevitable.
Depending on final counts, the two parties are likely to be within a handful of seats of a Dáil majority of 88. However, it is much less clear who might provide the third part of such a coalition.
Both Labour and the Social Democrats were wary about the prospect last night, not explicitly ruling out joining a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-led coalition, but saying that they first intended to talk to each other and to other parties.
Sources within the Labour Party said that there was a divide within the party about the prospect of entering government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, including among the membership. On Sunday, Labour leader Ivana Bacik reiterated her view that her party’s priority is to build a platform “on the left” before speaking to Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil about going into government.
Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns said she felt her party was in a very strong position to “play an important role in the next Dáil. In what position, government or opposition, remains to be seen.”
However, there is a notable caution among both parties about the costs of going into government – and the realistic price that could be extracted in return for supporting a coalition that will likely need very few votes to reach a majority.
“The leverage isn’t there,” a senior Labour Party source said on Sunday, with figures in the party also firmly of the view that it should not consider entering coalition without another smaller partner on board.
Meanwhile, a range of Independents have expressed an openness to a deal with the big parties in return for their support.
Election Daily: a dramatic day in count centres as the political future takes shape
Galway East TD Seán Canney, a junior minister in the Fine Gael-led 2016 to 2020 minority government, said he was open to having discussions. Mr Canney also said his view was that “a lone ranger is not the way to do it”, adding he wanted to see about forming a bloc like the Regional Group of Independents from the last Dáil.
This group included Michael Lowry, who was re-elected in Tipperary and Verona Murphy in Wexford, who has also kept her seat.
Ms Murphy confirmed she was open to the prospect of such a group being formed. “I’ll talk to anyone who wishes to talk common sense, but it has to transpire in delivery and be an advantage to the people of Wexford.”
Mr Lowry, meanwhile, told reporters at the count centre in Tipperary that he would “absolutely” be open to government talks.
Micheal Healy-Rae, who has been re-elected in Kerry, alongside his brother Danny, said of his approach to any government talks: “Our phones are turned on. If somebody wants to ring me, they’re very welcome to ring. We’ll answer the call. We’ll talk. We’ll say what we need for Co Kerry, not what we need for the Healy-Raes.
“The three priorities are as follows – Kerry, Kerry and Kerry – be that roads, infrastructure, housing, health, fishing, farming.”
At the count in the RDS in Dublin over the weekend, the Sinn Féin leader, Mary Lou McDonald, said that “we have broken the political mould in this state” and said she would look to have talks with other left-wing parties, with a view to presenting an alternative to a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil administration.
But Sinn Féin suffered a sharp drop in its vote since the last general election in 2020, falling away by 5.5 per cent, and there is little sign of a pathway to government for the party.
Both Labour and the Social Democrats enjoyed much better days, with both parties adding substantially to their numbers of seats. Each hoped to exceed 10 seats with projections suggesting that the Social Democrats could perhaps win as many as 12, depending on the later counts yet to take place in several constituencies.
The Green Party avoided a total wipeout of its seats when party leader Roderic O’Gorman edged in on the last count in Dublin West. Elsewhere, however, the election was a disaster for the party, with 11 of its 12 outgoing TDs losing their seats.
One of the most arresting moments of the election came when Labour candidate Marie Sherlock overtook gangland figure Gerard “the Monk” Hutch, in a fiercely tight count in the Dublin Central constituency.
For much of Saturday and Sunday’s count, it seemed that Hutch was on course to clinch the seat, in what would have been an astonishing outcome for a person described in the High Court as the leader of one of Dublin’s main criminal gangs, and who is facing money-laundering charges in Spain.
In the end, however, Ms Sherlock benefited from transfers from the Greens’ Neasa Hourigan and Fianna Fáil’s Mary Fitzpatrick to nudge ahead of Hutch on the final count.
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