Election 2024

Election 2024: What we know so far as ballot boxes are opened

Indications are Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are probably headed back to government

Counting takes place at Nemo Rangers GAA club in Cork, after voters across the State went to the polls. Photograph: Jacob King/PA Wire
Counting takes place at Nemo Rangers GAA club in Cork, after voters across the State went to the polls. Photograph: Jacob King/PA Wire
Pat Leahy's picture
Pat Leahy
Sat Nov 30 2024 - 12:10

It’s early, far too early, to be reaching definitive conclusions about where this election is going. But with the ballot boxes opened about three hours ago, it is possible to point to some emerging trends – and identify where the winners and losers might be when the dust eventually settles.

Firstly, it looks like, on the exit poll shares of the vote at least, that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are probably headed back to government. There is a margin of error on the figures, and the exit poll could also be wrong. But it is very unlikely that it could be wrong by enough to change the picture that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be close enough to a Dáil majority to make an alternative government impossible.

If the two parties achieve around their exit poll level of 20 to 21 per cent, that should put them in the mid-to high 70s in seat terms. A decent seat bonus – and with the strong transfers suggested by the exit poll, that should happen – could put them past 80 seats. A majority in the new Dáil is 88 seats, so on that sort of number, they’re nearly there.

But who would join them? That’s a lot less clear, and obviously considerations about government will be influenced by the final seat tally, but if the Greens suffer the sort of meltdown that the party is currently teetering on the edge of – then they’re probably out of the reckoning.

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Would Labour and/or the Social Democrats step up? The Soc Dems have sounded distinctly unenthused about the prospect. And Labour would surely be looking over its shoulder if the Soc Dems declined to serve. If that happens – and really, we are getting ahead of ourselves here – the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will have to go looking for the independents.

And the Greens are really in trouble. With tallies still coming in, the party could face losing all its seats – as happened the last time it was in government. It’s really too early to say, but some seats are definitely gone and others – including party leader Roderic O’Gorman, junior minister Ossian Smyth and maybe even Cabinet minister Catherine Martin – will be hanging on by their fingernails.

Labour looks set to have a better day, and the Social Democrats a much better day. Fears about leader Holly Cairns’s seat have been assuaged by early tallies, while Gary Gannon in Dublin Central seems to have seen off the challenge from returned ex-MEP Clare Daly. It looks like the end of the road for her. It looks like Mick Wallace’s campaign didn’t get off the ground in Wexford, either.

First counts are a bit away yet. They will give us a better grasp of the state of play – especially whether Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael can nurture serious hopes of getting above the 80 seat mark. And whether Sinn Féin, for the second time in a row, will win the popular vote but be left with no apparent route to government.