A Coalition led by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is the most popular choice of voters for a government after the general election, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll.
Fine Gael leader Simon Harris is the favourite choice for taoiseach, well in advance of his rivals Micheál Martin and Mary Lou McDonald.
Asked which option was their preferred government after the election, 17 per cent opted for a continuation of the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Green Coalition, while a further 28 per cent preferred a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil combination with a different third party — 45 per cent who want to see Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil form the basis of the next administration.
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The next most popular option was a Sinn Féin-led government without either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil, which was preferred by 18 per cent. Eight per cent favoured a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin coalition, while 17 per cent said “none of these”.
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On the choice of the next taoiseach, Fine Gael leader Mr Harris has a clear lead. He is preferred by more than one-third of voters (34 per cent) to be taoiseach, a drop of three points since September.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is the choice of 22 per cent, down two points, while Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin is preferred by 16 per cent, up two points.
Just over one in six voters (17 per cent), however, say they would like to see someone else as taoiseach, while 10 per cent said they don’t know.
Sinn Féin is the party with the highest negative ratings — 40 per cent of respondents said they would not like to see the party in government, an increase of three points since September. The Greens are next, on 26 per cent, while Fianna Fáil (22 per cent) and Fine Gael (21 per cent) are bunched together.
Asked about the recent events in Sinn Féin that dominated the weeks before the general election campaign, a clear majority of voters (57 per cent) said that they would “make no difference” to their vote, although a sizeable minority (32 per cent), said it would make them “less likely” to support the party. Seven per cent said it would make them “more likely” to support Sinn Féin.
The result of the US presidential election has made some voters more cautious as the election looms. Asked specifically about Donald Trump’s election, 56 per cent of people said they were now more worried about the future; 13 per cent said they were less worried and 28 per cent said it made no difference.
There has been a fall in the number of people who favour “radical change” — 35 per cent, down three points — and an increase in those favouring “moderate change”, up by five points to 56 per cent. Seven per cent say they are “wary of change”.
The poll was conducted among a representative sample of adults aged 18 years and upwards across 120 sampling points throughout all constituencies.
Unlike most other opinion polls, The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A series is conducted through face-to-face sampling; personal in-home interviewing took place on November 12th and 13th. The number of interviews conducted was 1,200 and accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
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