Politics

When will the general election be called? The Government’s final business before it can go to the polls

Decks nearly clear of key legislation party leaders have insisted must be seen through

All three Coalition party leaders have insisted there are key pieces of legislation they want to see completed before the Taoiseach potentially dissolves the Dáil. in advance of a general election. Photograph: Bryan O Brien
All three Coalition party leaders have insisted there are key pieces of legislation they want to see completed before the Taoiseach potentially dissolves the Dáil. in advance of a general election. Photograph: Bryan O Brien
Jennifer Bray's picture
Jennifer Bray
Thu Oct 17 2024 - 11:41

With the door firmly open to an early general election on foot of comments made by Tánaiste Micheál Martin to The Irish Times Inside Politics Podcast, politicians are now scouring their calendars for key dates that could hint at the timing of the election.

All three party leaders have insisted on multiple occasions that there are key pieces of legislation they want to see completed before the Taoiseach potentially dissolves the Dáil. Looking at the legislative calendar, it seems the decks are nearly clear.

As part of Budget 2025, the Government announced a €2.3 billion cost-of-living package that includes the double-double child benefit and a number of lump-sum payments too. The legislation that gives effect to these payment is the Social Welfare Bill. Last week, it was thought that it would take until the end of October to get this through the Oireachtas.

That’s because it normally takes a month for this Bill to wind its way through the various stages of debate and discussion. But the legislation finished second stage in the Dáil in just two hours on Tuesday, while committee and remaining stages were completed in just an hour on Wednesday.

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Party leaders have also mentioned landmark legislation to regulate gambling, which has been promised for decades. This week, the legislation – which puts in place a Gambling Regulatory Authority to oversee the licensing and regulating of betting – was also passed by the Oireachtas

Then there is the Maternity Protection Act 2004, a law that will enable women with cancer to defer their maternity leave until their treatment ends. The Irish Cancer Society has, for more than two years, run a “Leave Over Leave” campaign that finally paid dividends earlier this year when Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman pledged to address the issue. O’Gorman has made it known publicly and privately that he wants to see this legislation passed before any election is called.

The Bill is in for second stage in the Dáil on Thursday, then Committee and remaining stages next week. Officials are hoping to also confirm amendments in the Seanad next week, raising the possibility that it could get over the finish line by the end of next week. And that just leaves the Finance Bill, which gives effect to many Budget 2025 decisions, and which is now winding its way through the Oireachtas.

The draft Dáil schedule for next week was issued on Thursday, and as of yet, there is no plan in place to push things forward. That means the next stage of consideration is still due to be committee stage on November 5th. The original plan was to have all stages of the Bill finished by December 11th. However, Mr Martin has said the party leaders would need to accelerate the consideration of the Finance Bill if a general election is to take place this year.

[ Election before Christmas? Okay, says Micheál Martin ]

And that bring us to now. First, the three party leaders will need to sit down and agree that an early election is what they all want. They will then need to accelerate the financial legislation through the Oireachtas. If they don’t want timelines to slip towards Christmas, they’d need to put their skates on here. Some Government sources believe that the party leaders could agree an election date next Monday night at their leaders meeting, and that they will publicly outline then exactly how they intend to get the final bits of work done. That, effectively, would be the start of the campaign. Others believe they will hold off for a week or two and push the legislation through, even though the import of doing that would be very clear to the public.

In any event, the political world is now gearing up for an election date in mid to late November, or potentially early December.