An opinion poll does not an election make. But boy do people take notice of them, especially when they provide spectacular figures.
In the latest Irish Times poll, Fine Gael is at 27 per cent support. In the context of recent political history, it’s over the moon stuff for Simon Harris, that’s for sure. The party is up four points and is at its highest level since June 2021, more than three years ago.
Those kinds of figures scream a November election.
The party is seven points clear of its nearest rival, Sinn Féin, which is on 20, and eight clear of Fianna Fáil, which is at 19 (as far as opinion polls go, the Soldiers of Destiny seem to be stuck in a perpetual holding pattern).
Irish Times poll: Voters prefer Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition and Harris as taoiseach
The Trump factor in Ireland’s election: Voters see less appeal in ‘radical’ change
The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll: the full results in charts
First election poll shows it wouldn’t take much for the race to start looking very tight
Political Editor Pat Leahy has all the detail in our main news report and in this acerbic piece of analysis.
If you are an anorak, our special opinion poll section has enough graphs, data and trends to keep you occupied for the rest of the day.
Among the smaller parties, the Green Party is at 5 per cent (up one); Labour 6 per cent (up one); the Social Democrats 4 per cent (up one); Solidarity-People Before Profit 2 per cent (no change); and Aontú 1 per cent (no change).
Independents are at 16 per cent (down one).
Fine Gael will dismiss this publicly as just another opinion poll but, in private, it must be giddy with delight. This is a party that is approaching its 14th straight year in Government, which is losing almost half of its outgoing TDs to retirement (forty-something Damien English was the latest, only making his announcement yesterday evening) and that has still not solved the housing crisis.
The surge is attributable to just one factor – Simon Harris. Simple as.
Since becoming leader of a slightly bedraggled and directionless party in March, he has been like a cat on a hot tin roof. He is in constant motion, zinging from one gig to the next, from early morning to late night. If it’s Kyiv on Tuesday, it must be Ratheniska on Wednesday. If there is something to be said on any imaginable issue Simon will say it. No job too big or small.
At least six of Harris’s closest advisers are communications experts. And that’s also what he is. He has leveraged his own fluid, fluent skills as a communicator to suck the oxygen from every other leader. He has been strategic and focused with the message. He has managed to remain a constant presence in the public eye. Not only has he bested Sinn Féin, he’s also done a decent job of eclipsing Fianna Fáil, for whom Micheál Martin has long been its star turn.
The Harris honeymoon has not worn off . . .yet. In Irish it is called mí na meala (the month of the honey). But it is now six months and counting, and the force field is still going strong.
The whole thrust of the Fine Gael approach to the impending election will be to focus all its campaign around Harris. It will be the party’s most presidential campaign since Garret FitzGerald’s time, or ever, for that matter. Its strategists will be hoping that the Harris effect will do for Fine Gael what Mary Lou McDonald did for Sinn Féin in 2020. A vote for the party’s candidate in each and every constituency will be a proxy vote for its leader.
Pat Leahy’s take on it:
“Today’s result is the highest level of support that Fine Gael has registered since June of 2021, but is the lowest that Sinn Féin has seen since before the last general election in 2020. However, the Sinn Féin result is substantially better than the share of the vote achieved by the party at the local and European elections in May.”
There is further good news for the Coalition when voters are asked if they are satisfied with the performance of the Government and its leaders.
“Government satisfaction jumps by nine points to 40 per cent, its highest level in nearly two years. The jump in the approval rating for Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris is even more dramatic – he sees his personal rating surge by 17 points to 55 per cent. ”
First day back
It was a very busy first day back in the Dáil as you would expect. Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl struck the tone of the day right off the bat with an excoriating criticism of the Leinster House bike shed folly, with its €335,000 price tag.
There was also several contributions on what should be done with the Apple tax bonanza, including a novel suggestion by Michael Healy-Rae for the funds to go towards developing a bullet train from Dublin to Shannon, Co Clare.
Simon Harris told his parliamentary party last night that the details of where the €13 billion will be spent will be outlined on budget day, October 1st.
Damien English to step down
English was once the youngest TD in the Dáil and he now retires as a national politician while still in his 40s but with more than two decades of service, and as one of the most well-liked politicians in Leinster House. He was a Minister of State until the online new site The Ditch disclosed that he had made a false declaration in a planning application over 15 years ago. The Meath West TD admitted the same and stepped down as junior minister last year.
Scoliosis delays dominates Leaders' Questions
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald raised the plight of an eight-year-old child for whom lack of surgical intervention for scoliosis is leading to his ribs beginning to crush his lungs.
The delays over surgeries for this debilitating condition that leads to extreme curvature of the spine have been a big issue for well over a decade, with unfulfilled promises from successive governments to ensure that surgical intervention occurs at the earliest possible moment.
As Marie O’Halloran reports, McDonald raised the case of Harvey Sherratt as she accused Taoiseach Simon Harris of breaking his promise that no child would wait more than four months for treatment.
Ms McDonald said that two years ago the curvature of Harvey’s spine was 65 degrees but is now 110 degrees.
Fine Gael has the momentum as Sinn Féin's slide continues - poll
Morning Reads
Miriam Lord is back and her first topic is, you’ve guessed it, the bicycle shed.
Here are five things to expect in the first week of the new Dáil term.
Fianna Fáil MEP Barry Andrews responds to Eoin Drea’s comment piece with a strong rebuttal of its central thesis that Michael McGrath’s new EU portfolio reflects Ireland’s falling stock in Europe.
Here is part of Andrews’s defence of the McGrath appointment: Michael McGrath’s new responsibilities place him at the front line in Europe’s existential battle against illiberal democracies. He will replace outgoing Belgian commissioner Didier Reynders, who championed the cause of consumer rights and the rule of law. Reynders himself is a political heavyweight, having held no fewer than four ministries, including finance and foreign affairs, as well as being deputy prime minister.
By contrast, Eoin Drea delights in catastrophising the appointment and places it in a long list of backward steps for our membership of the European Union, concluding that the appointment shows how far Ireland has fallen.
Playbook
The Government is holding an internal seminar focusing on online safety today. Corman McQuinn has the details.
Taoiseach Simon Harris is visiting the ploughing championship for a second time this week.
Dáil
09.00
Parliamentary Questions: Minister for Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media Catherine Martin
10.30: Parliamentary Questions: Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien
12.00: Leaders’ Questions
13.44: Defamation (Amendment) Bill, 2024 – Second Stage
The new definition proposed by the Bill adds specific reference to online-only publications. Also many new additions including the abolition of juries in High Court actions and a defence for defamatory statements made during a live broadcast.
Mental Health Bill, 2024 – Second stage (resumed)
18:30: Private Members’ Business (People Before Profit-Solidarity): Motion re Disability and Special Needs Provision
21:20: Dáil adjourns
Committees
09.30: Committee on Drugs Use
Engagement on Decriminalisation, Depenalisation, Diversion and Legalisation (resumed)
- Representatives from Irish Pharmacy Union (IPU)
- Representatives from the Irish College of General Practitioners (ICGP)
09.30: Good Friday Agreement Committee
Women and Constitutional Change (resumed)
- Emma DeSouza, Civic Innovation Specialist
- Ailbhe Smyth, Activist, Campaigner and Strategy Specialist
13.30: Environment and Climate Change
Review of the Climate Action Plan with Eamon Ryan, Minister for Environment, Climate and Communications; and Transport
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