An “out-of-body experience”, declared Aodhán Ó Ríordáin following his unexpected victory in the Dublin European Parliament constituency.
You almost expected him to follow it up with an “I’m over the moon”; and an “I can’t put it into words”.
He is not a sportsperson but that sense of being overwhelmed by the moment is the same. Elections are the All Irelands for politicians, the moments of truth that judge everything they have done in the past and define what they will be in the future.
Local elections and EU Parliament elections may be second order but can give huge momentum to political parties and can also teach really hard lessons. And we have seen that in abundance since the boxes were opened for the first time on Saturday. Plenty of inspiration. Plenty of lessons learned.
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So where are we this morning?
Well the local elections are done and dusted. There are only three seats left to decide out of 949, and they are all in the Newbridge LEA of Kildare County Council. The delay is because of a recount. Or to be more precise three recounts. Two candidates, Aontú's Melissa Byrne and Sinn Féin’s James Stokes finished equal after the second recount. Stokes was eliminated because his first count total was lower than Byrne’s. But then a request was made for a third recount that was ongoing overnight.
The big themes of the locals have been well ventilated at this stage. Despite getting fewer seats than they did in 2019, Fine Gael (245 down from 255) and Fianna Fáil (246 down from 279) have been portrayed as the winners. Despite getting more seats than it did in 2019 (102 compared to 80), Sinn Féin has been portrayed as the loser.
Why is that?
Well, it’s the 2020 general election, not the 2019 election, that is the comparator. And all the opinion polls that have been held since then. Sinn Féin was expected to win big. It didn’t. The other two parties held up their vote very well.
The Social Democrats had a fantastic local election but not such a good European election. They almost doubled their seat total from 19 to 36 on local authorities and are now the second biggest party on Dublin City Council.
The Greens have not got obliterated but they have just done so-so. They have held on in Dublin but have let seats slip elsewhere, in Galway, Westmeath, Clare and Waterford. Ciarán Cuffe losing his seat in Dublin will be a huge blow to the party.
We have also seen entryism. A relatively large group of right-wing agitators who have tried to create conflict and division, some with xenophobic and racist tropes, tried their hand in the local elections. Five councillors with explicit anti-migration messages have been elected in Dublin, three of them on Dublin City Council. It’s a small change but is significant. And they won’t be the last to be elected in Ireland.
European elections
As of this morning, only five of our 14 MEPS have been elected: one in Ireland South and four in Dublin. It will be Thursday or even Friday before those marathon counts are concluded. Live coverage will continue on irishtimes.com.
Dublin provided a fascinating count process. It ultimately boiled down to the transfer of Bríd Smith’s (PBP) votes. By the time she was eliminated, she had 28,772 votes and outgoing MEP Clare Daly was lying in seventh place, 5,000 votes behind Ó Ríordáin and Cuffe.
Smith and Daly would have been members of similar Marxist parties in the past and Smith had offered a transfer pact, which Daly refused. That was a mistake. Daly needed enough transfers from Smith to get in ahead of the Labour TD, or in of Ciaran Cuffe. But while she got 6,500 transfers, it wasn’t enough. Ó Riordáin got 4,500 and Cuffe got 2,500 which kept him 1,000 votes ahead of Daly.
Daly’s departure was not gracious. She refused to talk to the media and when Samantha Libreri asked for a comment, she claimed that RTÉ would not speak to her for five years so she was not going to speak to them now. That was untrue. Daly continually refused questions and interview requests from the media over the past five years, including numerous requests from The Irish Times.
In contrast, Cuffe, who was excluded in the next round, was magnanimous in defeat. There were many tributes paid to a thoughtful and considered politician who is widely respected.
Getting MEPs elected is really important for all the parties. Especially so for Labour. It has not had an MEP elected since 2009 and this victory will give it a huge fillip, a “show and tell’ that it is well on the road to political recovery.
Lynn Boylan survived comfortably in the end to regain a seat she lost five years ago. It will allow Sinn Féin to salvage something from the election. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have done well. We know that Fianna Fáil will have at least three MEPs (Billy Kelleher; Barry Andrews and Barry Cowen); Fine Gael will have four (Sean Kelly, Regina Doherty, Nina Carbery and Maria Walsh). Sinn Féin has one. Luke Ming Flanagan will get elected. Labour has one with Aodhán Ó Riordáin. The other four seats could go any way.
Sinn Féin has a chance of regaining the seat in Ireland South, but its chances look marginal in MNW. Ciaran Mullooly looks the slight favourite to take the fifth seat in MNW. In Ireland South, Michael McNamara, the Clare TD, will be there or thereabouts. So will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú (FF) even though she will be battling it out with Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion, Grace O’Sullivan of the Greens and Independent Mick Wallace. The calls are too tight to give a credible prediction.
And then there is Limerick. The election for a directly-elected Mayor was clear cut from the start. It was a decisive victory for John Moran, who seems to have a decisive plan for the city and county.
Best Reads and Listens
Eoin Burke-Kennedy has written a detailed assessment of John Moran, the new Mayor of Limerick.
Pat Leahy has a fascinating piece on celebrity candidates.
Miriam Lord’s column has spotted the new (clunky) put-down by Simon Harris of the Sinn Féin leader: “Mary Lou-splaining”. She also comes up with a killer line when describing Harris’ exchange with another opposition leader.
“Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns began with a sideways nod to her own party’s election achievements.
“One thing she learned on the doors in recent weeks is that people have no time for ‘the Punch and Judy show’ that often happens in the Dáil.
‘”Hear Hear!’ said the Taoiseach as he hit Mary Lou over the head with a mallet and tried to stuff Pádraig into the sausage machine.”
Cormac McQuinn reports that the new RTÉ chairman Terence O’Rourke will tell TDs and Senators today that funding for RTÉ in the future should be “sufficient, predictable and independent”.
“He will also say that RTÉ is ‘on course’ to provide Minister for Media Catherine Martin with detailed plans for how to implement recommendations of expert groups that examined governance and human resources issues at the broadcaster ‘very soon’.”
Mr O’Rourke is to appear before the Media Committee on Media later today.
Election Daily: Sinn Féin’s leadership under scrutiny
Playbook
Dáil Éireann
- 09:58: Private Members’ Business (Regional Group): Motion re Nature Restoration Law
- 12:00: Leaders’ Questions
- 13:05: Taoiseach’s Questions
- 14:50: Defence (Amendment) Bill 2024 – Report and Final Stages
- Also Planning and Development Bill 2023 – Report stage.
- This debate will conclude at midnight and resume tomorrow. It is likely that the Government will then guillotine the debate and press the vote. That’s going to cause uproar and increase speculation the Government is clearing the decks in advance of an election.
- 00:00: Deferred Divisions (votes) on Social Welfare (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2024
- 00:30: Dáil adjourns
Seanad Éireann
- 13.00: Address to Seanad Éireann by Mrs Mary Robinson, former President
- 15.30: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024 – Report and Final Stages
Committees
- 9.30: Health
- Health (Miscellaneous Provisions) (No. 2) Bill 2024 Committee Stage with Mary Butler, Minister of State at the Department of Health
- 09.30: Social Protection.
- Discusses the application of the Universal Credit system in the UK Representatives from Resolution Foundation, Mike Brewer
- 13.30: Transport.
- To discuss the impact of the passenger cap at Dublin Airport on Ryanair’s business and operations with representatives from Ryanair
- 13.30: Tourism, Arts, Sports and Media
- Engagement with Terence O’Rourke, Chairperson to the Board of Raidió Teilifís Éireann
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