A better than expected performance for the Government parties in the local elections has led to pressure on Taoiseach Simon Harris to call an early general election.
Mr Harris insisted plans for the Government to serve a full term until next March were unchanged by the election results. But the strong showing by the Coalition parties, and a dramatic collapse in support for Sinn Féin, has led to growing expectations across the political spectrum that an autumn election is now on the cards.
As results rolled in from around the country confirming a strong showing for the Government parties on Sunday, Fine Gael backbencher Michael Ring called for an early election, while outgoing Green MEP Ciarán Cuffe said an election this year was “inevitable”. Behind the scenes there was intense speculation that Sinn Féin’s weakness opened the door for the Government to bid for re-election.
“My position in relation to the next general election remains the same,” Mr Harris told The Irish Times Inside Politics podcast, “I think the Government going full term is important and I look forward to continuing that”.
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As count results were announced across the country all day on Sunday, the trends that were suggested by tallies on Saturday firmed up. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were neck and neck in the race to top the local elections poll on Sunday night, though both parties will lose a number of council seats. There was a noticeable pattern of transfers between the two parties, observers said.
Although some counts were continuing on Sunday night and final numbers could change slightly, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were both on 23 per cent of the vote, though Fine Gael maintained a lead in the number of councillors elected. Turnout was just under 50 per cent.
The Green Party was on course to lose seats but did not see the sort of collapse some in the party had feared, and should finish on about 4 per cent.
The Labour Party had a good day, winning almost 6 per cent, well ahead of centre-left rivals the Social Democrats, who were on about 3.5 per cent. But the Social Democrats were confident on Sunday night of winning new seats, with gains already assured in Cork South West, home of party leader Holly Cairns.
The big winners were the diverse ranks of the Independents who won 28 per cent of the vote. There was no big breakthrough for the far right, though some outright anti-migrant candidates such as Gavin Pepper were elected – to Dublin City Council in Pepper’s case – and candidates who opposed accommodation facilities for asylum seekers in their localities also won council seats.
[ Sinn Féin falls flat in hugely ambitious local election strategyOpens in new window ]
It was a terrible day for Sinn Féin, which saw its vote slump to under 12 per cent – slightly ahead of where the party was in 2019 but far behind its general election result in 2020 and only a fraction of its opinion poll ratings in recent years, which reached the mid-30s for a long period.
Party figures were at a loss to explain the dramatic collapse in the vote. Party leader Mary Lou McDonald said that “clearly frustrations and indeed anger with Government policy, on this occasion, has translated into votes for Independents and others”, and insisted her leadership of the party was not in question. She said she would lead a process of review and reflection on the results.
While many local election counts were continuing last night, focus will move today to the European elections.
The first count in the Dublin constituency was announced late last night and showed Barry Andrews of Fianna Fáil and Regina Doherty of Fine Gael in a strong position to win the first two seats. Behind them is a scrum of candidates vying for the remain two seats, including Lynn Boylan of Sinn Féin, Niall Boylan of Independent Ireland, Ciarán Cuffe of the Greens and Aodhán Ó Ríordáin of Labour. Outgoing independent MEP Clare Daly will require very strong transfers from other candidates if she is to stay in the race.
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