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Moderate Ireland seems to be bucking trends towards the extreme elsewhere in Europe

At less than 12 per cent the Sinn Féin support collapse will be hard to reverse before a general election

Local election results: Fine Gael's Ray McAdam (Dublin North Inner City) celebrates at the RDS. Photograph Nick Bradshaw
Local election results: Fine Gael's Ray McAdam (Dublin North Inner City) celebrates at the RDS. Photograph Nick Bradshaw
Pat Leahy's picture
Pat Leahy
Mon Jun 10 2024 - 06:00

Can the centre hold? Yes, it can.

Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party outperformed expectations in the local elections – and, by the look of things last night, in the European elections too – to minimise expected council seat losses and clearly signal that the current Government could be re-elected in a forthcoming general election many political insiders believe to have been brought closer by the weekend’s results.

Comments by Taoiseach Simon Harris at the RDS yesterday, when he brushed off suggestions of an early dash to the country, did little to dampen speculation that the stronger-than-expected showing by the three Coalition parties, bolstered by an apparent trend to transfer between them, will alter the stated election timing for next March.

The impatience in Government circles will be heightened by the realisation that an election now would be a nightmare for Sinn Féin, which experienced its worst election result since it became a significant player in the Republic’s politics more than two decades ago.

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Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald has said she is 'disappointed' with Sinn Fein's performance in the local elections. Video: Enda O'Dowd

Sinn Féin’s disaster was the standout story of the weekend’s count. Opinion polls in recent months have tracked a steady decline in support for the party. But with recent general election polls putting the party in the 20s, the actual result that took shape when the ballot boxes were opened was far worse than party figures anticipated, even in their worst-case scenarios.

At less than 12 per cent for the local elections, the result shows a collapse in Sinn Féin support that is of a magnitude that will be hard to reverse before a general election. Counts today in the European elections could bring more bad news, with a possibility that the party could be without a seat in any – or, unbelievably, all – the European Parliament constituencies. That’s unlikely, but Sinn Féiners will be living on their nerves today.

It is true that Sinn Féin had a terrible local and Euros in 2019, and turned that around within eight months to have a barnstorming general election in February 2020. Hard trick to repeat, though. And they might not get eight months this time. Party leader Mary Lou McDonald, who faced the music in the RDS yesterday with defiance, faces the hardest challenge of her political career.

Sinn Féin’s collapse opened the space for a surge in support for Independents, who made gains across the country. Were they a single political force, the Independents/others would be the largest party in the country. But of course, they’re not a party – though the phenomenon of sort-of-parties of local Independents such as the Healy-Raes in Kerry, the Lowrys in Tipperary, and now Verona Murphy’s Wexford Independent Alliance – seems on the rise. And as has been repeatedly pointed out, Independents include some of the most right-wing and some of the most left-wing people in Irish politics.

There was no big breakthrough for the far right. There’s no doubt that many Independent candidates campaigned with an immigration-sceptic message. Several were headed for election last night. Some overtly far-right candidates were still in with a shout of being elected; but there was no big swing for them. Instead, the centre has moved to a tougher line on asylum seekers. That tends to be the way Irish politics works.

The emerging election results have already changed the political context at the start of the summer

It is important to realise that local elections are quite different from general elections. The turnout is lower – about 50 per cent, compared with 63 per cent in the 2020 general election – and the question asked of voters is, after all, quite different. But it is certain that Independents will remain a significant force in any future elections. In the current Dáil, several Independent deputies have proved reliable allies for the Coalition, bolstering its effective majority. There are likely to be many candidates for that role again.

The Taoiseach Simon Harris has said his position on when the general election should be held “hasn’t changed”

The emerging election results have already changed the political context at the start of the summer. For a start, they have demonstrated the Government parties can realistically compete for re-election – an election that the Taoiseach, even as he insists he is not tempted to run to the country, will come under intense pressure to hold this year.

In fact, the political logic always pointed to an October or November election. As the results sink in – and especially if things get worse in the Euro elections for Sinn Féin – that logic may become overwhelming.

At present, Budget 2025 is pencilled in to be delivered on October 8th. To facilitate a pre-Halloween election, the Government could bring that date forward into September. Budget Day will be confirmed when the Government publishes its summer economic statement in early July. That will be one to watch.

But beyond the question of election timing, these election results have underlined the strength of the much-dismissed and occasionally-maligned political centre in Ireland. At a time when extreme forces are making the political weather across much of Europe, moderate Ireland seems to be bucking that trend.