The fears of Government, Opposition parties and the army of non-governmental organisations that made up the broad Yes-Yes campaign for referendums that never grabbed the public’s attention – and when they did, antagonised many of them – were realised spectacularly on Saturday as soon as votes began tumbling out of the ballot boxes.
With propositions that were confusing and unconvincing, and a campaign that was lacklustre and unenthusiastic, few had expressed any confidence in recent days that the referendums would be passed.
But even if it was not a surprise, it was still a shock, in a way. When veteran Labour figure Kevin Humphreys tweeted a picture of a tally sheet before 9.30am with a more than 12 to one lead for the No side, the message flew around political and media circles: it’s going down.
As tallies from around the country began to arrive in a trickle and then a flood, all bearing the same message, any room for doubt quickly evaporated; the rejection of the Government’s proposition was complete and overwhelming.
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By the afternoon the Taoiseach was down in Dublin Castle, acknowledging defeat and trying to put a brave face on it. Not easy; it’s a helluva defeat for his Government.
It wasn’t just the Coalition’s proposition, of course; it was supported by almost all the Opposition parties, with the important exception of Peadar Tóibín’s Aontú. It was also backed by trade unions and the Government-funded NGO sector – including groups like the National Women’s Council of Ireland – which made much of the running throughout the campaign.
Many of those who purport to speak for workers, women and people with disabilities supported the proposals – but very many workers and women and people with disabilities did not. Obvious questions now present themselves for these groups.
On this question, the NGOs seemed to speak principally for themselves. This Government and probably future ones are likely to take note of that.
There was a predictable rash of finger-pointing at the Government – the campaign was anaemic, the wording unclear, the polling date gimmicky, the process first too long drawn out, and then rushed; all true.
Reasons for the extraordinary result abound; they are always plentiful. But amid all the clamour on Saturday evening to blame the Government for how it arrived at and then supported these proposed constitutional changes, it would be unwise to overlook the central thrust of what has just happened.
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Asked to change the constitutional references to the family, voters overwhelmingly rejected that option. Sure, there were people who might vote Yes for a slightly different amendment, or a stronger proposed change, enshrining the rights of disabled people to care; but the fact of this result stands.
People were offered a reasonably understandable change, and they said no thanks – by an enormous margin. That reverses the trend of several recent referendums.
It does not mean that general trend of society has lurched permanently to a conservative one. But it definitely means that future governments will not assume that similar constitutional changes are a foregone conclusion.
For one example, the proposed addition of justiciable social and economic rights in the Constitution, a campaigning goal of some NGOs, maybe looks a bit different now. Future governments will tread these steps with more caution.
One obvious lesson is that you shouldn’t run a referendum unless you’re sure it’s on something that people definitely want.
There was an unavoidable sense of people being taken for granted in this. Unwise. The Taoiseach’s insistence – and it was, apparently, his – on holding the referendums on International Women’s Day was a hammy gesture that may have ended up antagonising some voters – especially women who found that their children’s school was closed because it was being used as a polling station.
It might not be the end of gesture politics, but it will certainly give would-be gesturers pause for thought in future. As the result unfolded, some senior Government figures were wondering quietly about the future of the hate speech legislation.
The look on the faces of those Ministers brave enough to go to Dublin Castle told enough about the scale of the Government’s embarrassment. But does it have any lasting political consequences?
That’s uncertain. Governments have lost referendums and gone on to prosper. On on other occasions, however, a losing referendum has been a portent of electoral doom.
The key thing for the Coalition is to ensure that the mistakes that gave rise to a proposition found so unconvincing by voters, and a lacklustre campaign by the politicians, are understood, addressed and not repeated.
But there is little confidence around that they will be. As the time for big political decisions comes ever closer, doubts about the judgment of the Government’s leaders are now plain for everyone to see.
This is clearly a Government that has not done politics well of late. It does not have long to turn that around.
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