Politics

Sinn Féin, DUP and Alliance consolidate dominance in latest poll

Largest nationalist party would remain in first place in a new Stormont election, according to latest results

Michelle O'Neill, pictured with national Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald, is the would-be First Minister, and would remain so after another election if the latest polling were to hold. Photograph: Collins
Michelle O'Neill, pictured with national Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald, is the would-be First Minister, and would remain so after another election if the latest polling were to hold. Photograph: Collins
Tue Mar 21 2023 - 11:15

A new opinion poll has indicated that Northern Ireland’s largest three political parties have consolidated their dominance.

Last year’s Stormont election saw Sinn Fein returned with the largest number of MLAs, becoming the first nationalist party in Northern Ireland to do so.

The Irish News/Institute of Irish Studies/University of Liverpool poll shows a 1.6 per cent increase for Sinn Fein from the Assembly election last May to lift its vote share to 30.6 per cent.

The Assembly has not sat since the last election while the DUP continues to refuse to take part until its concerns around Brexit’s Northern Ireland Protocol are addressed.

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The poll suggests Jeffrey Donaldson’s party has slightly increased its share of the vote from last year by 2.6 per cent, from 21.3 per cent to 23.9 per cent.

The Alliance Party has also increased its support further from its record 13.5 per cent to move into third place, to 15.4 per cent, the polling indicates.

The UUP vote remains stable, increasingly slightly from 11.2 per cent to 11.3 per cent, while the SDLP vote has fallen from 9.1 per cent to 6.7 per cent, and support for the TUV has fallen from 7.6 per cent at the Assembly election, to 4.8 per cent.

Of the smaller parties, the poll indicates support for the Greens is up from 1.9 per cent to 3.2 per cent, People Before Profit is up from 1.1 per cent to 2.2 per cent, support for Aontú is down from 1.5 per cent to 0.2 per cent and NI Conservatives’ support has risen from 0.01 per cent to 1.3 per cent.

Professor Peter Shirlow from the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool said the results show the trends from last year’s Assembly election are continuing.

“Sinn Fein would remain in first place and Alliance at the very least hold their recent growth,” he told the Irish News.

“The DUP seem to be clawing back some TUV voters, who may now realise voting for Jim Allister led to Alliance victories and Sinn Fein emerging in pole position.”

Meanwhile the poll also samples opinion ahead of the 25th anniversary of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.

The poll suggests that 23 per cent give unqualified support for the historic accord, 37 per cent back it but believe it would work better if reformed, 13 per cent believe the structures are no longer a basis for regional government and should be substantially changed, and 7.2 per cent believe the structures should be removed.

In terms of community background, 67.2 per cent of nationalists back the agreement 25 years on, 57.5 per cent of unionists back the agreement in some form and 58.2 per cent of others also support it.

Polling was carried out between March 3rd and 14th and has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.1 per cent. –PA