With a fortnight left to go in February, it’s unlikely we are going to see the shape of the Government’s cost-of-living package for spring for at least a week or more, along with how much money is to be thrown at it. Will it be like the tote accumulator that was last October’s version, quickly ratcheting up from €2 billion to north of €4 billion? Unlikely, but there will be a few substantial once-off payments.
We have not yet finished receiving payments from the autumn package. The final €200 energy credit will be transferred to bills in March. It is much needed too, given the hernia-inducing gas and heating bills that people received in February.
The fact that no decision will be taken this week has not deferred plenty of speculation and a fair delay of lobbying. There is some tension between the Greens and others over proposals. The bigger parties want the excise cut of 20c on petrol and 16c on diesel to remain in place. The smaller party is less enthused. There are talks about universal payments too – that could mean another energy credit.
Sinn Féin has been pushing for mortgage interest relief to respond to the dizzying series of interest rate rises announced by the European Central Bank in recent months. That looks unlikely.
Just 10% of consumers planning to spend more this Christmas
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No Fianna Fáil 2011-type disaster for Sinn Féin but repeat of their 2020 success looks unlikely
The cost of living is a big election issue even if price rises are slowing
The reduced 9 per cent VAT rate for the hospitality sector also looks unlikely to survive its sunshine clause date of February 28th. The hospitality sector met with Michael McGrath and Paschal Donohoe yesterday but both Ministers were giving nothing today. There seems to be a growing sense in Leinster House of the inevitability of a return to the 13 per cent rate.
Here’s the report on that meeting.
Cabinet meeting
Cormac McQuinn previews today’s Cabinet meeting with a good heads-up report on new plans to protect victims and vulnerable witnesses in cases of coercive control, forced marriage, stalking and harassment.
“Minister for Justice Simon Harris is expected to brief colleagues on plans to expand protections on offer to victims of sexual offences or children during trials to other groups of victims or witnesses.
“It comes in response to a Private Members’ Bill in the Seanad which would allow courts to prohibit an accused person of personally cross-examining a victim or a child in coercive control cases,” McQuinn reports.
However, while the Bill will not be opposed by the Government, Mr Harris will tell colleagues his department is working on legislation that will broaden such protection to cases involving forced marriage, stalking and harassment.
Denis Naughten announced last night that he will not be contesting the next election. The Roscommon-Galway Independent TD will be a big loss to politics. He had his difficulties as a minister, but making a proper national broadband network into reality will be his greatest legacy. Though still a young man (he is 49), Naughten is a veteran of Leinster House, having served as a senator and TD for 26 years.
Naughten is unusual in that he has been an Independent TD for a decade but is still regarded as in the Fine Gael mode, or gene pool. His support in South Roscommon has always been from a Fine Gael base. In a statement, he cited personal and political reasons as his reasons for stepping back and exploring new possibilities. Here’s the report.
St Patrick’s Day
Today is the annual Flight of the Earls Day in Irish politics. It’s when we find out where all our Ministers and Ministers of State will be going for St Patrick’s Day. The first thing we do is look at the most far-flung and exotic places and find out which lucky Minister is taking one for the team by spending a week in Buenos Aires or Sydney. All the usual arguments will be rehearsed about the cost of the trips, along with all the usual counter-arguments about how valuable it is for Ireland Inc etc.
It’s hard to know what to make of the Chinese cameras being used in Leinster House. Green Party TD Patrick Costello has been leading the charge on this issue, but he got support from Cathaoirleach of the Seanad Jerry Buttimer who said yesterday that the Oireachtas should examine their use.
Assisted dying is one of those very problematic areas where it is almost impossible to find agreement on how best to deal with us humans at the end of life. Gino Kenny is one of the most sincere politicians in Leinster House and he has championed a number of causes around “personal” politics during his time as TD.
Yesterday he accused the Government of delaying the establishment of a promised Oireachtas committee on dying with dignity. He has written to Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl to express his “frustration on the lack of progress”.
While a committee chair has been appointed – Independent TD Michael Healy-Rae – the Government has yet to nominate its five TDs to the 15-member panel.
Kenny wrote: “I’m sure you understand that such a serious debate needs a serious level of commitment from the government to progress this debate but that level of commitment in even establishing the committee is seriously lacking.”
Best reads
Fintan O’Toole argues that the Attorney General avoided the central issue when advising the Government on the State’s legal strategy for cases taken on behalf of people with medical cards who were residents of private nursing homes.
“The Attorney General does not dispute this illegality. But instead of asking the fundamental question – how should a democracy respond to such a radical violation of its constitutional order? – he wraps it up in several layers of sophisticated evasion,” he writes.
It’s worth listening to our Inside Politics podcast from Friday again, which asks: is Bertie Ahern now eyeing up the presidency?
Norma Foley will bring proposals for an inquiry into sexual abuse at private schools to Government shortly.
There’s a fascinating oped piece by Galway man Aidan Beatty, who lectures in the University of Pittsburgh. The headline says Sinn Féin but the article is mainly about the fears of losing property, and quotes Edmund Burke extensively.
His final paragraph sums it up: “And indeed, here in Ireland, what is the current anxiety about the rise of Sinn Féin but the playing out of all these old tropes; the anxiety of property-owners that the propertyless are finally coming for you?”
Playbook
Dáil
Leaders’ Questions is at 2pm.
Order of Business.
A new Bill to set up a Commission of Investigation (Collusion of British State Forces) Bill 2023 will be introduced.
The Veterinary Medicinal Products, Medicated Feed and Fertilisers Regulation Bill 2023.
This will be debated for two hours from 3.55pm.
Sinn Féin’s motion on the spring bonus and cost-of-living supports will reignite this ongoing debate for another week.
Minister for Further and Higher Education Simon Harris will take questions just before 8pm.
Dáil adjourns at 10.14pm.
Seanad
It will discuss two Bills. One is a technical one on contingency plans for fuels, Oil Emergency Contingency and Transfer of Renewable Transport Fuel Functions Bill 2023. The other is also technical to ensure risks are minimised on electronic communications services: Communications Regulation and Digital Hub Development Agency (Amendment) Bill 2022.
Committees
The Sub-Committee on Mental Health meets at 11am. Under its chair, Senator Frances Black, it will discuss the publication of the Mental Health Commission’s interim report on the review of the provision of Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS). Representatives from Health Service Executive will be present. It will make for an important session.
At 11am, the Joint Committee on Autism will discuss autism policy with the IHREC, the Office of the Ombudsman for Children and also from the Office of the Ombudsman.
