The likelihood is that if the Green Party fails in achieving its aims in this Coalition, it could lose all its Dáil seats as it did in 2011. There is also a chance that, if the party succeeds in achieving its aims, it could still lose most — and possibly all — its seats.
That is its unique conundrum. There are no quick wins. There are no easy gains. For it to achieve, there are only long-drawn-out battles of attrition that take years and years, and — at the very best — end up as a scoreless draw.
My colleague Cormac McQuinn reported this week on the implementation plan for the first year of the Climate Action Plan where almost a quarter of the targets were not met or delayed.
“Key reasons for delays cited by Government departments,” wrote McQuinn, “include capacity and capability constraints across the public sector; lengthy stakeholder consultation processes; and the complexity of climate action delivery”.
There you go — the story of Ireland over the last quarter of a century. The decision is followed by delay, followed by objection followed by delay, followed by laborious planning and consultation process, followed by delay, followed by a change of Government, followed by a change of plan, followed by delay.
That said, it is not 2007 all over again. The party is bigger now, more experienced and more politically canny. There is more buy-in from its Coalition partners. It has access to far more money and can actually implement real change. For instance, spending on transport is at a ratio of 2:1 favouring public transport over cars; 20 per cent of the overall transport budget has to go to active travel (typically, walking or cycling).
The party is in relatively good fettle as it holds its annual convention in Athlone this weekend
After a tumultuous first year in Coalition, when there was messy wrangling between various strands of the party, the past 18 months have been marked by the party settling well in Government. Part of that was because many of those on the left wing who were anti-Coalition departed, some to join the semi-detached Just Transition Greens.
The party is in relatively good fettle as it holds its annual convention in Athlone this weekend. It has managed to get a start on some of its big policy objectives. Six offshore wind projects (admittedly most on the shallow banks of the Irish Sea) should be under way by the end of the Government’s terms. That’s a start.
Much more delivery is needed on public transport — BusConnects in particular. Electric vehicle take-up could be more and the infrastructure is lagging behind. Retrofitting has had a pitiably slow start, given that the aim is to get 500,000 homes done.
Party leader and Minister for the Environment Eamon Ryan has been very active. He has become a bogeyman for some in rural Ireland, which goes with the territory. Deputy leader Catherine Martin, the Minister for Tourism, has been consistent in her alphabet soup of portfolios over the past two years with a “living wage” for artists among her big achievements. After a very tentative start, Minister for Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth Roderic O’Gorman has become much more decisive in the past year with the Children and Equality portfolio. He achieved more than expected on mother and baby homes and has not shirked from making tough decisions on emergency accommodation for refugees in the face of local opposition.
Cop27: What was agreed and what difference will it make?
The party’s Ministers of State have stepped up the mark. Pippa Hackett has finally come good with an ambitious plan for forestry to halt the shocking decline in new planting. Malcolm Noonan, Ossian Smyth and Joe O’Brien have done solid work in their portfolios: committee chairwoman and men Neasa Hourigan, Brian Leddin and Stephen Matthews have ploughed through multiple policy issues. Hourigan and Patrick Costello remain the only two potential “rebels”. The Canadian trade deal, Ceta, remains perhaps the biggest issue to divide the parliamentary party.
Other party priorities, including a living wage and the circular economy, are now being progressed by the Coalition.
In most ways, it is a steady-as-you-go convention. The programme reflects the party’s priorities: climate change; childcare; arts, culture, animal welfare and sustainability. There are no motions for policy change or no agenda items that will foment division. Most attention will be on the leaders’ speeches tomorrow evening.
The biggest challenge facing the party is to show the electorate it has made a difference in Government. Given the long-term nature of most of what it is looking for, that’s not an easy task, given the short-term perspective of politics.
Greenhouse gas emissions went up again in 2021. There is little to suggest there will be a dramatic change in that trajectory in 2022.
The evidence suggests, however, that people are happy to make changes only until the moment they have to make actual adaptations
In a recent opinion poll in The Irish Times, 68 per cent of respondents said they were willing to make changes to tackle climate change even if it involved costs and inconvenience to them.
The evidence suggests, however, that people are happy to make changes only until the moment they have to make actual adaptations. And then they will resist tooth and nail.
In the same opinion poll, 82 per cent opposed higher taxes on fuel and energy. These were exactly the same respondents. The two opposing views cannot be reconciled.
The stark reality is that climate change is not urgent enough for enough people, notwithstanding the dire warnings the Cop summits issue every year.
Then there is realpolitik. The Greens need to come out of this Coalition with some seats in order to influence. The party cannot afford to do lemming politics and sacrifice everything, including all its seats, in order to chase windmills. Otherwise, as discovered in 2011, it will be wholly peripheral to Irish politics.
