The self-immolation of Britain and its standing in the world as Brexit trundles along the monorail from mistake to farce to tragedy should not cloud Irish judgment: we will miss them when they are gone.
The spectacle of the British government's management of Brexit has, for those with a clear-eyed view of Irish interests, long since stopped being funny. This week a commentator in the Conservative and Brexit-supporting magazine the Spectator reported that a member of the inner cabinet has taken to warning people that Mrs May's government's policy-making on Brexit "looks worse from the inside than the outside". All you can say is that that is some achievement.
The chaos in London threatens the worst type of Brexit. But whatever type of Brexit is eventually settled on – hard, soft, crusty, squishy in the middle, whatever – the EU after Britain leaves is going to be a colder and lonelier place for Ireland.
You don’t have to be a swivel-eyed Irexiteer, cheering on Nigel Farage’s and John Waters’ calls to throw off the foreign yoke, to realise that Ireland’s relationship with the EU is going to change in the future.
It’s one of the small ironies of history that our principal gallant ally in Europe for most of our period in the EU, and especially in recent years, has been the UK.
Agricultural matters apart, successive Irish governments have relied on successive British governments as their most reliable friends in Brussels. The Irish and British have consistently been on the same side on trade, on economic matters, on justice and home affairs, and on EU efforts for further integration across a variety of policy areas.
Removes our cover
Sometimes Irish diplomats and politicians would wait for the British to block proposals that Ireland didn’t like but didn’t want to alienate other countries by objecting to. A lot of this was in the area of what one Irish official calls “all that future of Europe stuff”.
When the UK leaves Germany and France combined will have 34.6 per cent of the population. Ireland, the Baltics and the Nordics combined will have 11 per cent
The British departure, in short, removes a lot of our cover. That’s why both politicians and diplomats are currently on such a charm offensive with other EU countries, particularly the smaller countries, and the Nordics and Baltics. The Taoiseach was on the job in Vienna on Thursday evening, improbably finding himself in the company of a prime minister younger (and, travelling companions joked, more right wing) than himself.
The impact of the British departure can be measured in votes on the Council of Ministers (where transport ministers, or agriculture ministers etc meet to decide EU policies and rules) and its complicated “qualified majority voting” (QMV) system.
Currently, Germany and France combined have 29 per cent of the EU’s population. You need 35 per cent (and four member states) to form a blocking minority. When the UK leaves Germany and France combined will have 34.6 per cent of the population. Ireland, the Baltics and the Nordics combined will have 11 per cent.
Voting strength
It’s true that EU measures don’t usually come up for actual votes. But at the same time they are negotiated in the knowledge of voting strength. During the negotiations everyone is calculating the voting strengths in the room, say people familiar with the system.
Votes may be rare, but that doesn’t mean QMV doesn’t matter; it matters a lot. If you can clearly see that you don’t have the votes in the room, there’s no point in pushing it to a vote.
This change in the voting clout comes at a point that the old Franco-German motor is revving up. French president Emmanuel Macron has declared that he wants a European finance minister and budget, tax harmonisation, a common defence budget and policy, a European intelligence agency, universities, ending the rule of having a commissioner from each country, introducing Europe-wide lists for MEPs and so on.
Poor Paschal Donohoe, who almost never says a cross word to anyone, was hauled over the coals by an audience in Davos
Macron’s drive for a close union will be greatly bolstered by the agreement of a grand coalition in Germany. Martin Schultz, leader of the Social Democrats, is expected to become foreign minister. He is a committed European federalist, who says there should be a United States of Europe by 2025.
As Derek Scally reported, Herr Schultz is clear what direction he will move in: “We will return to an active and leading role in the EU, and I hope this forms the basis of a closely-integrated co-operation with Paris.”
The boys are back in town.
Hauled over the coals
The drive for greater EU integration will soon focus on tax – Ireland’s great concern.
Poor Paschal Donohoe, who almost never says a cross word to anyone, was hauled over the coals by an audience in Davos, an occasion recalled by Richard Boyd-Barrett in questions to the Taoiseach during the week.
With customary brio, Boyd-Barrett managed to lambast Davos as a club bar for the evil global elite while still hat-tipping the event for criticising Ireland’s corporation tax regime. Though he might have had a point; if they think your tax arrangements are a bit much even in Davos then you can be sure your backside is out the window.
France and Germany may set a course for destinations, in areas like tax, where the Irish government and the Irish people might not want to go.
Extreme Euroscepticism is a fringe pursuit in Ireland. But if the EU takes a turn in a more integrationist direction – and that is likely – our perception will change. That’s inevitable.
Europe has changed constantly since Ireland joined. It is now on the verge of another big change – comparable and perhaps more profound than the single market, the euro, the eastern expansion. All these things worked to Ireland’s advantage. The coming change will not.
That will inevitably change Ireland’s relationship with the EU, one way or another.