There will be an election early next year. Of that we are certain. For all the talk about polls, no votes have been cast yet.
Rather than speculating about the outcome, it might be more worthwhile to focus on the issues to be determined at the election. It seems to me the choice facing the electorate revolve around two questions.
Will the public be minded to vote for stability; and, if they do, will they vote for balance?
The stability choice seems straightforward. The economic recovery is under way. The existential crisis created by the last administration has been resolved. Ireland in a better place than it was in 2010. If the key task of any government is to leave the country in a better condition than it found it, this Government has delivered in spades.
The recovery is not complete and international economic uncertainty remains, however. Political stability is vital. In Portugal, uncertainty about government formation has driven up bond yields. It is in this context the Coalition parties have offered themselves for re-election.
Labour and Fine Gael represent two traditions. But over five years those differences have been secondary as we've worked together in the national interest. As newspaper headlines about divisions attest, that hasn't always been easy. But we have seen it through and will continue to do so because we know stable government is essential to continuing our recovery.
Consider the alternatives. The two largest Opposition parties will not coalesce. Neither is interested in doing business with Fine Gael and will not seek a mandate to do so. Efforts to put together a platform involving the so- called left have been shambolic. Independents want Cabinet seats but not Cabinet responsibility. A country that has endured what Ireland has does not need that uncertainty, or a series of inconclusive elections. Only the Government parties offer stability.
Balance
The question may arise as to whether the election of Fine Gael, with the possible support of smaller right-wing parties or right-wing Independents, could also provide that stability. Unlikely, but that’s where the second question comes in: that of balance.
This Government has been a balance of left and right. Labour’s compromises have been highlighted more than those of our Coalition partners. Parties of the centre left are always subject to particularly vitriolic attack by those on their left. But any fair-minded critic would have to admit Labour has made a difference.
Measures to promote collective bargaining and labour agreements, sustain welfare payments and promote a back-to-work agenda, bottom-up tax reform and the liberalisation of same-sex marriage laws, to name just a few, are the not the hallmark issues of the centre right.
In 2014, when the first money became available for additional capital investment, it went into the social housing programme. A fairer deal for tenants is but the latest example of Labour balance.
Social tension
Perhaps because Labour has punched above its weight in this Government, we have avoided some of the worst social tension that manifested itself in other European countries in similar positions. In fairness, Fine Gael, with its conservative tradition, has been the other side of that balanced Government.
Yet this balanced Government is not an inevitable consequence of the election. It has to be voted for. It looks likely Fine Gael will be the largest party after the election and in the next government. But only Labour is offering to work in that to ensure the balanced approach remains.
We will support further tax cuts for low- and middle- income earners but a majority of the resources our economy will create in the next five years should be invested in improving public services.
The last seven or eight years have been difficult in this country. But we have pulled together as a people and got ourselves out of the mess.
Of course, the rising expectations success creates are the source of new challenges. But as a Government we are committed to managing the public finances effectively and adding to the 130,000 jobs already created. We will not be returning to Fianna Fáil ways.
Yes, we will be putting a few euro back in people’s pockets in January. It would be a tragic irony if the orthodoxy developed that you should take money away from people in good times as well as bad times. But our budget is sensible and prudent. Our economic plans will be guided by the new fiscal rules.
The Coalition’s balance of forces has worked for Ireland. The Opposition will raise a hue and cry but has no intention of delivering in government. Only Labour is determined to ensure the balance of left and right continues in the next administration. Brendan Howlin is Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform