Although the risk of a Trump presidency recedes by the day it is still heartbreaking to watch US politics being dragged down to such depths. There is nothing as dangerous as a man with nothing left to lose. Donald Trump appears to have given up on winning the US presidential election and is merely flaying around causing collateral damage to Republican candidates fighting senate and congressional races on the same day.
The beauty and mastery of Michelle Obama's oratory can deflect us momentarily. US president Barack Obama's skilled disparaging of Trump's latest utterances can encourages us. Alec Baldwin and Saturday Night Live provides us with some comic relief as they satirise Trump.
None of that, however, gets us away for long from how awful this campaign is. Watching the Trump campaign and the Trump personality disintegrate on prime-time US and international media and on social media is both compelling and disturbing at the same time in a manner akin to a horror movie.
Trump was initially a curiosity as a celebrity candidate in a weak field contesting the Republican primary field. He tapped into a sense of disconnect which many US voters feel from the US economy and a deep disgust they feel for the establishment. He brilliantly exploited the media for attention. He soared to the Republican nomination.
Trump then shuffled through the Republican convention. He faltered in the first half of August by attacking the Khan "Gold Star" family and distancing himself from Republican leaders such as Paul Ryan and John McCain. In early September during the crucial campaign period after the Labour Day weekend Trump recovered ground as Clinton slipped, literally.
Now, however, less than three weeks before polling day the intense media gaze, which Trump revelled in for so long is facilitating his undoing. He survived criticism for his public attacks on Latinos and other immigrants and his mimicking of a disabled journalist. But when the now infamous “Access Hollywood” tape was published in which he was derogatory and abusive about white women, Trump’s campaign came unstuck.
The series of allegations which emerged in the aftermath of the tape by different women that Trump had kissed them without consent or groped them has fatally undermined his presidential bid. The allegations are unproven but they have been substantiated by the fact that these women told friends or colleagues about the incidents at the time they occurred or long before the current presidential race began. Trump was exposed for the narcissistic, misogynistic and abusive personality many suspect he was. In his reaction to these controversies and so much else he has shown himself clearly unfit to be president.
Outcome
Much of his initial appeal was built on his reputation, as presenter of the
Apprentice
, for being an impressive and successful businessman. That too has gradually been eroded. Forensic print journalism has exposed how several of his businesses collapsed and that he may have paid no federal taxes for almost a generation.
In recent days Trump has sought to deflect from his difficulties by attacking the US political system itself. His refusal again in Wednesday night’s debate to say that he would accept the outcome of the election if he loses has put a further nail in the coffin of his campaign.
Hillary Clinton is a long-time insider, who has been a highly partisan figure for decades. She has made enough enemies and mistakes along the way to give her highly negative ratings. Even against a candidate as disastrous as Trump it never seemed that a candidate of Clinton's background could win by a landslide. Now, however, the national polls put her with a lead of at least 9 per cent over him. State by state polls show her winning massively in the Electoral College.
Of course, anything is still possible in this crazy election cycle. There are still 2½ weeks of campaigning to go. There may be more Wikileaks or otherwise damaging stories about Clinton to come. At this stage, however, a decisive Clinton victory looks likely.
Presuming that happens then her urgent task will be to calm US politics down. Together with the outgoing president and the leadership of both the Republican and Democratic parties Clinton will have to restore basic decency and some stability. Much will also be determined by what happens in the elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Some degree of respect between the opposing sides will have to emerge and some semblance of co-operation will be required and quickly. It will take a massive effort to do so.
While they set about this task US politicians will also have to deal with the debris of Trump’s campaign. Even if he sinks, the hulk of Trump will linger with the potential to damage the US political system and the country’s reputation even further. Even if defeated decisively on November 8th Trump will not have gone away.