The Tory hounds are again baying for Theresa May’s blood as she inches ever closer to a deal with the European Union. Her fate and that of her country are inextricably intertwined but so too is the future of this country.
That is why prominent Irish politicians, particularly Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney, would do well to take a vow of silence as the drama plays out rather than making comments that only fuel the paranoia of Conservative hardliners.
Ever since they raised the question of a united Ireland last year the pair managed to inflame tensions with Conservative Brexiteers and the Democratic Unionist Party at regular intervals. While the Tory right and the DUP can be relied on to behave stupidly in virtually all circumstances, taunting them makes it even more difficult for May to bring her party with her on the road to a deal.
At this stage she is probably the only hope of a deal that could work for Britain and Ireland. Her fall would trigger chaos in British politics and make the prospect of a no-deal Brexit even more likely.
That is why May’s crab-like movement towards a deal represents the best chance of a benign outcome. Her decision not to engage at last week’s EU summit was a sign of weakness but it also showed a shrewd appreciation of the political reality she faces at home. Her best hope is to cling on and give her MPs a last minute choice of her deal or a no deal in December or even in the new year.
Labour rebels
There is every likelihood that some of her own MPs and the DUP will vote against it so she will have to depend on Labour rebels to get it through. That will only happen in a doomsday scenario but that is exactly what the UK will face.
At this stage the shape of the deal on offer is clear. The EU is insisting that the Irish backstop be put in legal language but it is also willing to give a backstop to the whole of the UK as long as it is not time limited.
The British have failed utterly to grasp what is at stake for them until very late in the day
By all accounts there was a heated discussion of the options at the British cabinet on Tuesday. One group of ministers, including foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt and agriculture secretary Michael Gove were among half a dozen Ministers who emphasised their concern at the absence of a time limit on any backstop arrangement.
Another group led by May’s number two David Lidington argued that she should concede over the backstop. Lidington, a rock of sense in a fractious cabinet, apparently said he was terrified at the idea of a no-deal Brexit, which would be as serious as Black Wednesday when the pound crashed out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism leaving the Tories’ reputation for economic competence shredded for 15 years. In fact a no-deal Brexit will be far worse.
The appalling consequences of a no deal are finally beginning to impinge on the UK with reports that the government is making plans to charter ships to deliver emergency supplies of food and medicines because of customs chaos at the ports in the event of no deal.
One of the most striking things about the Brexit negotiations from the beginning is the way the EU 27, with Michel Barnier guiding them, have held together with a coherent negotiating strategy while the British have failed utterly to grasp what is at stake for them until very late in the day.
May contributed to this in her early months in office with facile statements such as “Brexit means Brexit” and “no deal is better than a bad deal”. It was only after her disastrous general election call last year that reality dawned.
The scale of May’s problem in coming to terms herself with the meaning of Brexit and then trying to lead a delusional party in the right direction was neatly illustrated in an experience recounted by prominent German journalist Matthias Matussek.
Matussek was invited to a dinner at the German embassy in London in honour of the writer AS Byatt. She surprised him by asking what he thought of the notion of a European constitution and he said it was probably not such a bad idea for the European community of nations to agree on a few foundational principles.
She replied: “You know, we British don’t need a constitution. We are the oldest democracy in the world.” She paused briefly before continuing: “For young countries like you Germans, constitutions could very well be useful.”
It would be almost impossible, wrote Matussek, to overstate the haughtiness and contemptuousness that dripped from her voice. “Essentially, she was saying, you are barbarians, you have only recently put down your cudgels. You need the leash.”
If somebody like Byatt, a member of the British liberal establishment, holds such views about Europe imagine what the average British Conservative thinks.
It gives an inkling of the task facing May in trying to get her country to face reality. All that politicians here can do is hope for the best and not make things worse than they already are with unnecessary public statements.