The resumption of border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand is a measure of the fragility of the truce brokered by Donald Trump in October and of the worrying failure of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to step up its regional peace -brokering role.
Thailand launched air strikes on Cambodia over the weekend after border clashes that killed one Thai soldier and a series of what Thailand describes as “provocations” by Cambodia, including laying landmines in disputed territory.
The century-old conflict centres around a border dispute, notably involving one of the biggest flashpoints, the 11th-century Preah Vihear temple, which Cambodia claims based on a 1907 map created during French colonial rule.
The International Court of Justice awarded jurisdiction of the temple to Cambodia in 1962, but Thailand has continued to maintain a military presence in the area. While Thailand continues to press diplomatically for recognition of its claim, Cambodia wants the ICJ to rule again.
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The dispute is fuelled by intense nationalism and internal political rivalries in Thailand between the current government and former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s family, which the authorities had hoped to sideline. In Cambodia, Shinawatra had a close relationship with the family of former prime minister Hun Sen.
Asean, the regional bloc charged with maintaining peace among its members, was slow to act when hostilities broke out this summer. China has watched on impassively, supposedly neutral, while Trump brokered a fragile ceasefire by threatening to impose tariffs against both parties.
The dispute was added to his list of peacemaking “triumphs” which is brandished repeatedly to justify his demand to be awarded a Nobel peace prize. But, like the DRC-Congo deal which was ratified in his presence last week as war there continued, and his much-vaunted precarious Gaza peace agreement, these thin deals invariably fail to tackle underlying problems, or do little more than moderate or postpone ongoing violence. The Cambodian-Thai truce was no different.
