The outcome of Cop30 in Brazil is hopelessly weak in responding to the climate crisis. The UN process for negotiating global action is teetering on the brink of irrelevance, given planetary warming is locked in a dangerous pattern of unpredictability, with climate breakdown a growing threat. This will go down in history as the Cop that accepted the 1.5-degree goal to retain global warming to within safe limits is breached, meaning costly technological solutions to remove carbon from the atmosphere will be necessary in coming decades.
An agreement in Belém got across the line after tortuous overnight negotiations culminating in a watered-down outcome. A modicum of tangible ambition would have sent a defiant signal to the world’s chief climate denier Donald Trump and his allies. This was an opportunity for the rest of the world to flag it was moving on – accelerating the uptake of renewable energy, restoring nature and ensuring the most vulnerable are supported by the worst carbon polluters.
Instead, the “forest Cop” could not even agree to tackle global reforestation at the level needed. Brazil’s wish for a commitment to forging a roadmap for fossil fuel phase-out was scuppered by petrostates and Russia – with tacit approval from China and India. Commitments agreed at Cop28 were parked. Instead, there is a voluntary initiative to speed up climate action to help countries meet existing pledges to reduce emissions.
There is cause for some hope, notably a call to triple adaptation finance by 2035, an acknowledgment that escalating climate impacts spare no country. There is a just transition mechanism to ensure the emerging green economy benefits everyone and new dialogues on how trade can support climate-resilient economic transformation. Such actions are the lifeblood of climate action. But much more was needed.
RM Block
While the closing agreement does not contradict the scientific consensus and edges the world slightly forward, it is not nearly enough. At least Ireland, along with the EU, pushed for more ambition on fossil fuel phase out, aligning with a coalition of almost 90 countries. As Minister for Climate Darragh O’Brien concluded, the outcome “falls short of meaningful ambition” and should prompt Ireland and the EU to prioritise the roadmap outside of the Cop process.
Clear fossil fuel phase out commitments are needed in the Government’s 2026 climate plan. Ireland should also back the global fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty initiative. The State is already part of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, which complements the treaty’s goals by working to end oil and gas production. Endorsing the treaty would be a bold gesture by a wealthy country which, in time, could help to lead to a positive tipping point in the global response to an overheating planet.
