The sense of crisis engulfing Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, has increased over recent days. Last week Wes Streeting, the health secretary, was forced to deny that he planned to challenge Starmer’s continued leadership of Labour following the 2026 budget, scheduled for November 26th.
It seems incredible that Starmer’s leadership is under threat just eighteen months after a landslide general election victory. But the prime minister has been buffeted by unrelenting crises since he took office.
The forthcoming budget is unlikely to shore up his premiership. The most recent figures show that the UK economy grew by just 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, which was down from 0.3 per cent in the previous three months. However, there was better news for Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the exchequer, on Friday as the Office of Budgetary Responsibility estimated that the fiscal deficit is closer to £20 billion, rather than previous estimates of £30 billion.
This means that Reeves can rule out a politically toxic increase in the basic rate of income tax. But she still faces a significant challenge to restore fiscal rectitude and there will inevitably be unpopular spending cuts and tax rises on November 26th. The political fallout could be considerable. If the current polls held to the next election, Labour would suffer big losses and Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform Party, would be the next prime minister.
RM Block
That Reform itself has not put forward a credible economic plan does not, as yet, seem to be affecting its support base. And the latest plans by the government to reduce immigration numbers is a clear response to the Reform agenda, though it has raised disquiet on its own backbenches.
As it stands, neither Labour, nor any of the main opposition parties, have laid out credible plans to revive the economy of post-Brexit Britain. As long as the UK remains stuck in a low growth cycle, Starmer is the one who will take the blame and thus remain politically vulnerable.
