That the guns and bombs are set to fall silent in Gaza – all going to plan – and supplies of food and medicine are beginning to reach its starving people is enormously important and welcome, if long overdue. What has happened is a significant breakthrough.
But much difficult terrain needs to be crossed in the plan put forward by US president Donald Trump before discussions can even begin on long-term arrangements. In welcoming the Sharm el Sheikh agreement between Israel and Hamas, European leaders spoke optimistically of opening the door to a sustainable peace rooted in a two-state solution. This is seen as the vague “political horizon” of Trump’s 20-point plan, but it remains little more than an aspiration. There is still a long road to be travelled.
For now we have phase one, which is agreement on the release of 48 hostages and 2,000 jailed Palestinians, a ceasefire and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. It is, says Trump, the first steps toward an enduring peace.
Ambiguities remain over which Palestinians will be freed and the extent of the initial Israeli pullback. The phase two challenges are even more difficult, involving the disarmament of Hamas and the deployment of an international stabilisation force. Meanwhile, Israel remains implacably opposed to making any commitment not to resume its war against Gaza should it see fit, while the guarantees being sought by Hamas from the US that it enforce implementation of the deal and will prevent future Israeli aggression will be tough to secure.
RM Block
Even the proposed interim governance arrangements, a committee of Palestinian technocrats, overseen by an international supervisory body led by Trump and former British prime minister Tony Blair, is far from agreed.
Both Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, a prisoner of his extremist cabinet, and Hamas, now without the powerful negotiating leverage of hostages, will find elements of phase two difficult to agree.
After two years of brutal war, triggered by the Hamas, October 7th, 2023, attack when it killed 1,200 people and seized 250 hostages, and the subsequent killing of over 65,000 Palestinians in Gaza, efforts to broker a temporary peace deal intensified in recent weeks. This followed Trump ’s presentation of his plan to Arab and Muslim leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last month.
Agreement on phase one has been brokered by US, Egyptian, and Qatari negotiators and through the long overdue application of serious pressure on Netanyahu by Trump. Belated credit is due to the unpredictable US president, but whether, as allies hope, such decisive leverage is sustained will be critical to moving this complex process forward.
