The turnout at the weekend’s 110,000 strong “unite the kingdom” march in London and the strong electoral gains by Germany’s far-right in the country’s industrial heartland are both significant straws in the wind. Europe’s far-right is flexing its muscles and proving that its malign scapegoating message is resonating more widely.
The London march, ostensibly about free speech, but actually against immigration, was organised by street-fighting populist Tommy Robinson. But it was in reality a trial of strength, a proxy, for Nigel Farage and his Reform party. It is currently topping the polls with ease, attracting support from 31 per cent of voters.
Reform’s subtext – that crisis-ridden Britain is in need of rescue – was spelled out in almost insurrectionary terms by billionaire Elon Musk, much as Trump once did to crowds outside Congress: “Violence is coming to you, you either fight back or you die,” he told the protestors on a giant screen link-up, saying Britain was in need of a change of government.
In Germany’s western industrial heartland, North Rhine-Westphalia, in the first electoral test for chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition government, far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was also breaking new ground. It secured 14.5 per cent of the votes in Sunday’s municipal elections in Germany’s most populous state, up from 5 per cent in 2020, reaching out from its strongholds in the east of the country to working-class voters in the Ruhr region.
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Last week in Norway, although the governing Social Democrats held on to their majority, the anti-immigration Progress Party made the biggest gains, securing almost 24 per cent of the vote. In France the far-right National Rally (NR), having taken another prime ministerial scalp, is calling for a general election, with strong poll support of around 33 per cent.
In Spain the far-right Vox party may yet force its way into coalition with the Christian Democrats, while Poland’s Law and Justice party , having just months ago retained the powerful presidency, is determined to reclaim power from prime minister Donald Tusk.
Perspective is needed. In the European Council, just four of 27 members (Hungary, Slovakia, Italy, and the Czech Republic) are led by nationalist governments, and their number is unlikely to increase in the short term.
In most countries the far-right remains cut off from power by the refusal of other parties to go into government with them. However, its growing strength is increasing its ability to block single-party government, forcing centrist parties into uncomfortable and unstable coalitions. And these fragile administrations are in turn struggling to implement policies which could turn the tide of support in their favour.
