Romania’s ultranationalist leading candidate for the presidency, George Simion, who has vowed to “Make Romania Great Again”, has nailed his colours explicitly to the Trump mast. If elected in the second round of voting on Sunday, he has made clear, for example, that on Ukraine he will join the EU’s awkward squad led by Hungary in hobbling military support for the embattled country.
In a TV debate Simion promised he will not vote to send “military aid to Ukraine because I will consult in defence matters with the American side”, and follow any decisions of the US president.
Romania’s vote marks yet another recent international election in which the heavy hand of the US president has played what is often a deciding role. In Canada, Greenland, and Australia, he substantially boosted centre-left, anti-Trump majorities. In Germany, and arguably in the UK’s local elections, he played into the success of the populist right.
Polling by a European think tank, the EPC, suggests, however, that the Trump effect has been to change the nature of European far-right campaign politics, rather than boosting them significantly. A YouGov poll also showed that since Trump’s re-election, favourable views of the US have sharply declined across western Europe, dropping from 48 to just 20 per cent in Denmark, 52 to 32 per cent in Germany, and 50 to 34 per cent in France
Simion won 41 per cent of the ballots cast in the re-run first round on May 4th, double his rival Nicusor Dan, the pro-EU centrist mayor of Bucharest. Polls show Simion heading for an outright win, backed by Calin Georgescu, the controversial figure at the centre of November’s election annulment after accusations he had benefited from Russian interference.
The controversial annulment of the first round appears to have had little effect on the rise of the far right, which will move to consolidate its likely victory with parliamentary elections to put in place a sympathetic government. European capitals will watch on nervously.
