Once again a papal conclave has thrown up a result that surprised most of the world. It would be wrong to describe Robert Prevost as a rank outsider; the Chicago-born prelate did appear on the longlists of well-informed observers. But most concluded that cardinal electors would be disinclined to choose an American.
That calculation was proved to be incorrect. As his first address in Latin, Italian and Spanish to the crowds in St Peter’s Square showed, the newly elected Pope Leo XIV does not conform to any national stereotype. A naturalised Peruvian citizen, his strong links with Latin America represent a clear continuity with his predecessor, Pope Francis, as does his commitment to the marginalised. Nevertheless, Leo’s election will focus attention on tensions within the American Catholic Church, given the public differences which emerged only a few months ago between then-cardinal Prevost and US vice-president JD Vance. Their differing interpretations of doctrine, with Vance arguing duty is owed first to one’s own family and local community, may prefigure debates to come between the Vatican and Washington over the treatment of migrants and the provision of international aid for those in need.
These have been rendered more fraught by the actions of the Trump administration in its first few months. And by taking the name Leo, the new pontiff appears to be signalling a wish to engage with contemporary questions of human rights and social justice in the manner of his 19th century predecessor, Leo XIII.
More traditionalist Catholics, meanwhile, may be reassured by the fact that Leo has shown less enthusiasm than Francis for opening up the Church to LGBT people or to those who have divorced and remarried. Nor has he expressed much support for bringing women into a more central role. His papacy, therefore, could be a disappointment for those who wish to see more rapid reform in these areas. And, like all senior clergy of his generation, the 69-year-old must also contend with the stain of clerical abuse and institutional concealment.
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On Friday, in his first Mass as pope, Leo told cardinals in the Sistine Chapel that he hoped to be a “faithful administrator” for the entire Church. He is expected to bring greater managerial and organisational skills than Francis possessed to the daunting challenge of reforming Vatican finances, a task that defeated his predecessor.
Francis, like John Paul II, was a charismatic figure who understood how to use the power and reach of modern mass media. Leo may be a more reticent and measured leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics. But just as his election was unexpected, his pontificate, too, could prove a surprise.
