The rationale for a planned crackdown on unregulated short-term lettings in order to relieve pressure on the housing market has been indirectly challenged by a report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
Its research raises doubts over a number of assumptions underpinning the Short-Term Letting and Tourism Bill which is before the Oireachtas and scheduled to come into effect in May next year. It will clamp down on landlords offering properties for short-term lets on platforms such as Airbnb without planning permission.
The measure is expected to push around 10,000 short-term rental properties into the longer-term rental market. This is roughly one third of the annual housing target set under the Government’s Housing for All strategy. Despite being a once off gain, it would be a welcome fillip given the difficulties the Government faces.
But this outcome would appear to be far from a certainty. The ESRI points out a number of factors that might blunt the legislation’s impact. The main one is the absence of a link at a national level between more Airbnb lettings and fewer long-term rentals. As a result, they caution that there is no guarantee the new measures will push down rents to a significant degree.
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They also highlight the need for very rigorous implementation if the new measures are to be effective and note that many short-term lettings may simply revert to being holiday homes.
An evidence-based approach to policy making would suggest that the proposed legislation be revaluated in light of the ESRI study, but that is unlikely.
The initiative would appear to have a good deal of cross-party support and the concerns of the tourism industry, and some rural TDs have been assuaged by the decision to apply the measures only to urban areas of more than 10,000 inhabitants. More pertinently the Government is under intense pressure to deliver on the housing front and passing the legislation would constitute a win of sorts.
