The fragility of the Gaza ceasefire agreement was reflected yesterday by the postponement of Israeli cabinet approval of the deal, amid claims that Hamas was already reneging on its terms. Israel’s government is still expected to vote on the deal and it seems the late disagreements with Hamas may have been sorted out. But the timing of the vote may be complicated by the threat to resign by far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Givr.
Despite celebrations in the streets of Gaza and Israel of the long-awaited prospect of both withdrawal of Israeli troops and the release of hostages and prisoners, Israeli attacks killed another 80-plus Palestinians in the hours after the announcement.
There remains a deep level of mistrust on both sides, accusations of bad faith, and a risk that we may be witnessing another false dawn with an agreement that leaves so many questions unanswered or long-fingered.
Nevertheless, after more than 15 long, agonising months, it appears that, with the assistance of the US, Egypt and Qatar, the basis for a welcome ceasefire agreement has finally been brokered. It is due to come into effect from Sunday. At first, a group of 34 hostages held by Hamas are due to be released over the course of 42 days, during which Israel will withdraw from most of Gaza, leaving some forces within a defined “perimeter zone” at the eastern edge of the coastal enclave. Gazans will be permitted to return to their flattened homes in the north of the enclave, while humanitarian supplies will resume on a large scale. Hundreds of Palestinians held in Israel are set to be released.
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The second phase of the three-phase deal, yet to be negotiated, is supposed to see the remaining hostages and hundreds more Palestinians freed, with the IDF leaving the rest of Gaza. Ominously, Israeli prime minister Netanyahu is insisting that the war will not be over until Hamas is finally destroyed, and that after the first phase the fighting may resume at any time. Israel is also adamantly opposed to agreement on any form of Palestinian self-government. The deal makes no reference to a path to statehood.
Netanyahu has been working hard to persuade voters both that the deal does not represent the sell-out his far-right cabinet allies claim, and that it is not a package that he could have agreed months ago had it not been politically inconvenient. One of his most prominent supporters has explained that phase one of the deal was necessary simply to provide US president-elect Donald Trump with an achievement ahead of his imminent return to the Oval Office, but that Trump doesn’t truly care about ending the war and will not object to Israel walking away from phase two.
Hamas will also have to demonstrate good faith, most importantly by accepting that it cannot play a part in any post-war governance of the enclave. It must also demonstrate an ability to discipline its militants and those of fellow jihadist groups like Islamic Jihad.
A crucial few days now lie ahead to see if this vital ceasefire will go ahead on schedule . It must.